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July 31, 2020, 9:21 a.m. EDT

10-Q: NATIONAL GENERAL HOLDINGS CORP.

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(EDGAR Online via COMTEX) -- Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes included elsewhere in this Form 10-Q.

Note on Forward-Looking Statements

This current report on Form 10-Q contains "forward-looking statements" that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The forward-looking statements are based on the Company's current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on the Company. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, such as "may," "will," "plan," "expect," "project," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate" and "believe" or their variations or similar terminology. There can be no assurance that actual developments will be those anticipated by us. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements as a result of significant risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, plans and expectations related to our proposed merger with The Allstate Corporation ("Allstate"), including anticipated timing for closing of the merger, the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the merger agreement with Allstate, the inability to complete the proposed merger due to the failure to obtain stockholder approval for the proposed merger or the failure to satisfy other conditions to completion of the proposed merger, the possibility that competing offers will be made, non-receipt of expected payments from insureds or reinsurers, changes in interest rates, a downgrade in the financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries, the potential effect of changes in LIBOR reporting practices, the effects of pandemics or other widespread health problems such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on our business, including our investment portfolio, and the national and global economy generally, the effect of the performance of financial markets on our investment portfolio, our ability to accurately underwrite and price our products and to maintain and establish accurate loss reserves, estimates of the fair value of investments, development of claims and the effect on loss reserves, large loss activity including hurricanes and wildfires, the cost and availability of reinsurance coverage, the effects of emerging claim and coverage issues, the effect of unpredictable catastrophic losses, changes in the demand for our products, our degree of success in integrating acquired businesses, the effect of general economic conditions, state and federal legislation, the effects of tax reform, regulations and regulatory investigations into industry practices, risks associated with conducting business outside the United States, developments relating to existing agreements, disruptions to our business relationships with third party vendors or agencies, breaches in data security or other disruptions involving our technology, heightened competition, changes in pricing environments, and changes in asset valuations. Additional information about these risks and uncertainties, as well as others that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, is contained in Item 1A, "Risk Factors" included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, Part II, Item 1A, "Risk Factors, in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and our other quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. The projections and statements in this report speak only as of the date of this report and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law.

Overview

We are a specialty personal lines insurance holding company that, through our subsidiaries, provides a variety of insurance products, including personal and small business automobile, homeowners, umbrella, recreational vehicle, motorcycle, lender-placed, supplemental health and other niche insurance products. We sell insurance products with a focus on underwriting profitability through a combination of our customized and predictive analytics and our technology-driven low-cost infrastructure.

We manage our business in two segments, Property and Casualty ("P&C") and Accident and Health ("A&H"), and conduct business primarily through our twenty-two regulated domestic insurance subsidiaries:

Property and Casualty:

Accident and Health:

Our insurance subsidiaries have an "A-" (Excellent) group rating by A.M. Best Company, Inc. ("A.M. Best"). On July 9, 2020, A.M. Best placed us and our subsidiaries under review with positive implications. We currently conduct a limited amount of business outside the United States, primarily in Bermuda.

Two of our wholly-owned subsidiaries are management companies that act as attorneys-in-fact for Adirondack Insurance Exchange, a New York reciprocal insurer, and New Jersey Skylands Insurance Association, a New Jersey reciprocal insurer (together with Mountain Valley Indemnity Company, a subsidiary of Adirondack Insurance Exchange, the "Reciprocal Exchanges" or "Exchanges"). We do not own the Reciprocal Exchanges but are paid a fee to manage their business operations through our wholly-owned management companies. The Reciprocal Exchanges are included in our P&C segment.

The operating results of insurance companies are subject to quarterly and yearly fluctuations due to the effect of competition on pricing, the frequency and severity of losses, the effect of weather and natural disasters on losses, general economic conditions, the general regulatory environment in states in which an insurer operates, state regulation of premium rates, changes in fair value of investments, and other factors such as changes in tax laws. The industry has been highly cyclical with periods of high premium rates and shortages of underwriting capacity followed by periods of severe price competition and excess capacity. While these cycles can have a large impact on a company's ability to grow and retain business, we have sought to focus on niche markets and regions where we are able to maintain premium rates at generally consistent levels and maintain underwriting discipline throughout these cycles. We believe that the nature of our insurance products, including their relatively low limits, the relatively short duration of time between when claims are reported and when they are settled, and the broad geographic distribution of our customers, have allowed us to grow and retain our business throughout these cycles. Also, we have limited

our exposure to catastrophe losses through reinsurance. With regard to seasonality, we tend to experience higher claims and claims expense in our P&C segment during periods of severe or inclement weather.

Our products in the P&C segment include personal auto, homeowners, RV/Packaged, small business auto, lender-placed insurance, and other products. The personal auto segment includes policies for standard, preferred and nonstandard automobile insurance. The homeowners product includes multiple-peril policies and personal umbrella coverage to the homeowner. The RV/Packaged product offers policies that include RV automatic personal effects coverage, optional replacement cost coverage, RV storage coverage, and full-time liability coverage. The small business auto product offers policies that include liability and physical damage coverage for light-to-medium duty commercial vehicles. The lender-placed insurance product offers fire, home and flood products, as well as collateral protection insurance and guaranteed asset protection products for automobiles.

Our products in the A&H segment include group, individual and third-party fees. The group product includes revenue from our small group self-funded product. The individual product line includes revenue from our supplemental products including short-term medical, accident/AD&D, hospital indemnity, cancer/critical illness, dental and term life insurance. Third-party fees include commission and general agent fees for selling policies issued by third-party insurance companies, fees generated through selling our technology products to third parties and fees from our international health insurance offerings.

We evaluate our operations by monitoring key measures of growth and profitability, including net combined ratio (non-GAAP) and operating leverage. We target a net combined ratio (non-GAAP) in the low-to-mid 90s while seeking to maintain optimal operating leverage in our insurance subsidiaries commensurate with our A.M. Best rating objectives. To achieve our targeted net combined ratio (non-GAAP) we continually seek ways to reduce our operating costs and lower our expense ratio. For the six months ended June 30, 2020, our operating leverage (the ratio of net earned premium to average total stockholders' equity) was 1.5x, which was within our planned target operating leverage of between 1.5x and 2.0x.

Investment income is also an important part of our business. Because we often do not settle claims until several months or longer after we receive the original policy premiums, we can invest cash from premiums for significant periods. We invest our capital and surplus following state and regulatory guidelines. Our net investment income was $61.4 million and $68.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020, and 2019, respectively. We held 6.2% and 3.3% of our total invested assets in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash as of June 30, 2020, and December 31, 2019, respectively.

Our most significant balance sheet liability is our unpaid loss and LAE reserves. As of June 30, 2020, and December 31, 2019, our reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses, were $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively. We record reserves for estimated losses under insurance policies that we write and for LAE related to the investigation and settlement of policy claims. Our reserves for loss and LAE represent the estimated cost of all reported and unreported loss and LAE incurred and unpaid at any given point in time based on known facts and circumstances. Reserves are based on estimates of the most likely ultimate cost of individual claims. These estimates are inherently uncertain. Judgment is required to determine the relevance of our historical experience and industry information under current facts and circumstances. The interpretation of this historical and industry data can be impacted by external forces, principally frequency and severity of future claims, length of time to achieve ultimate settlement of claims, inflation of medical costs and wages, insurance policy coverage interpretations, jury determinations, and legislative changes. Accordingly, our reserves may prove to be inadequate to cover our actual losses. If we change our estimates, such changes would be reflected in our results of operations during the period in which they are made, with increases in our reserves resulting in decreases in our earnings.

In March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused by a novel strain of the coronavirus was recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Shortly thereafter, the President of the United States declared a National Emergency throughout the United States attributable to such outbreak. The outbreak has become increasingly widespread in the United States, including in the markets in which we operate. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a notable adverse impact on general economic conditions, including adverse impacts on automobile sales and new home sales and increased unemployment, which may decrease customer demand for our

insurance products, negatively impact our premium volume, reduce our ability to access capital, and otherwise adversely impact our future results of operations. Additionally, federal, state, and local government actions to address and contain the impact of COVID-19 may adversely affect us. For example, regulatory actions seek to retroactively mandate coverage for losses which various types of insurance policies were not designed or priced to cover or seek to require premium refunds. Regulatory restrictions or requirements also impact pricing, risk selection and our rights and obligations with respect to our policies and insureds, including our ability to cancel policies or our right to collect premiums or fees. Because of the unprecedented size and breadth of this pandemic, and rapidly evolving situation, all of the direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19 are not yet known and may not emerge for some time.

While we continue to closely monitor the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and assess its potential effects on our business, the extent to which the COVID-19 outbreak will impact our operations or financial results is uncertain.

On July 7, 2020, the Company, The Allstate Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Allstate"), and Bluebird Acquisition Corp., a Delaware corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Allstate ("Merger Sub"), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement"), pursuant to which Merger Sub will be merged with and into the Company (the "Merger"), with the Company surviving the Merger as a wholly owned subsidiary of Allstate following the receipt of shareholder and regulatory approval and the satisfaction of other customary conditions. The Company expects the Merger to close in the first quarter of 2021.

For further discussion regarding the potential impact of COVID-19 and related economic conditions on the Company, and the proposed merger transaction pursuant to which the Company will be acquired by Allstate, see "Part II-Item 1A-Risk Factors."

Critical Accounting Policies

Our discussion and analysis of our results of operations, financial condition, and liquidity are based upon our condensed consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and judgments that affect the amounts of assets and liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities as of the date of the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions could change, which would have an impact on actual results that may differ materially from these estimates and judgments under different assumptions. We have not made any changes in estimates or judgments that have had a significant effect on the reported amounts as previously disclosed in Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.

For more information related to recent accounting pronouncements that we adopted during the six months ended June 30, 2020, see Note 2, "Recent Accounting Pronouncements" in the notes to our condensed consolidated financial statements.

Principal Revenue and Expense Items

Gross premium written. Gross premium written represents premium from each insurance policy that we write, including as a servicing carrier for assigned risk plans, during a reporting period based on the effective date of the individual policy, before ceding reinsurance to third parties. Premium refunds are recorded against gross premium written.

Net premium written. Net premium written is gross premium written less that portion of premium that we cede to third-party reinsurers under reinsurance agreements. The amount ceded under these reinsurance agreements is based on a contractual formula contained in the individual reinsurance agreement.

Change in unearned premium. Change in unearned premium is the change in the balance of the portion of premium that we have written but have yet to earn during the relevant period because the policy is unexpired.

Net earned premium. Net earned premium is the earned portion of our net premium written. We earn insurance premium on a pro rata basis over the term of the policy. At the end of each reporting period, premium written that is not earned is classified as unearned premium, which is earned in subsequent periods over the remaining term of the policy. Our policies typically have a term of six months or one year. For a six-month policy written on January 1, 2020, we would earn half of the premium in the first quarter of 2020, and the other half in the second quarter of 2020.

Ceding commission income. Ceding commission income is commission we receive based on the earned premium ceded to third-party reinsurers to reimburse us for our acquisition, underwriting and other operating expenses. We earn commissions on reinsurance premium ceded in a manner consistent with the recognition of the earned premium on the underlying insurance policies, on a pro-rata basis over the terms of the policies reinsured. The portion of ceding commission revenue which represents reimbursement of successful acquisition costs related to the underlying policies is recorded as an offset to acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses.

Service and fee income. We also generate policy service and fee income from installment fees, late payment fees, and other finance and processing fees related to policy cancellation, policy reinstatement, and insufficient fund check returns. We also collect service fees in the form of commissions and general agent fees by selling policies issued by third-party insurance companies as well as fees generated through selling our technology products to third parties.

Net investment income. We invest our statutory surplus funds and the funds supporting our insurance liabilities primarily in cash and cash equivalents, debt and equity securities. Our net investment income includes interest and dividends earned on our invested assets and earnings or losses on our equity method investments.

Net gains and losses on investments. Net realized gains occur when we sell our investment securities for more than their costs or amortized costs, as applicable; conversely, net realized losses occur when we sell our investment securities for less than their costs or amortized costs, as applicable, or we establish a credit loss allowance on our debt securities as a result of specific credit concerns. For debt securities classified as available-for-sale, other than the allowance for credit losses, we report net unrealized gains and losses within accumulated other comprehensive income in our balance sheet. We report all gains and losses on equity securities within net gains (losses) on investments in our statement of income. Net gains and losses on investments also include foreign exchange gains and losses which are generated by the remeasurement of financial statement balances that are denominated or stated in another currency into the functional currency.

Loss and loss adjustment expense. Loss and LAE represent our largest expense item and, for any given reporting period, include estimates of future claim payments, changes in those estimates from prior reporting periods and costs associated with investigating, defending, and servicing claims. These expenses fluctuate based on the amount and types of risks we insure. We record loss and LAE related to estimates of future claim payments based on case-by-case valuations and statistical analyses. We seek to establish all reserves at the most likely ultimate exposure based on our historical claims experience. It is typical for our more serious bodily injury claims to take several years to settle, and we revise our estimates as we receive additional information about the condition of claimants and the costs of their medical treatment. Our ability to estimate loss and LAE accurately at the time of pricing our insurance policies is a critical factor in our profitability.

Acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses. Acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses consist of policy acquisition and marketing expenses, salaries and benefits expenses. Policy acquisition expenses comprise commissions attributable to those agents, wholesalers, or brokers that produce premiums written on our behalf and promotional fees attributable to our affinity relationships. Acquisition costs also include costs that are related to the successful acquisition of new or renewal insurance contracts including comprehensive loss underwriting exchange reports, motor vehicle reports, credit score checks, and policy issuance costs.

General and administrative expenses. General and administrative expenses are composed of all other operating expenses, including various departmental salaries and benefits expenses for employees that are involved in the maintenance of policies, information systems, and accounting for insurance transactions, and other insurance expenses such as federal excise tax, postage, telephones and internet access charges, as well as legal and auditing fees and board and bureau charges. In addition, general and administrative expenses include those charges that are related to the amortization of tangible and intangible assets and non-insurance activities in which we engage.

Interest expense. Interest expense represents amounts we incur on our outstanding indebtedness and interest credited on funds held balances at the applicable interest rates.

Income tax expense. We incur federal, state, and local income tax expenses as well as income tax expenses in certain foreign jurisdictions in which we operate.

Net operating expense (non-GAAP). These expenses consist of the sum of general and administrative expenses and acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses less ceding commission income and service and fee income.

Underwriting income. Underwriting income is a measure of an insurance company's overall operating profitability before items such as investment income, interest expense, and income taxes. Underwriting income is calculated as net earned premium plus ceding commission income and service and fee income less loss and LAE, acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses, and general and administrative expenses.

Insurance Ratios

Net combined ratio (non-GAAP). The net combined ratio (non-GAAP) is a measure of an insurance company's overall underwriting profit. This is the sum of the net loss ratio and net operating expense ratio (non-GAAP). If the net combined ratio (non-GAAP) is at or above 100 percent, an insurance company cannot be profitable without investment income, and may not be profitable if investment income is insufficient. Our definition of net loss ratio and net operating expense ratio (non-GAAP) are as follows:

Net loss ratio. The net loss ratio is a measure of the underwriting profitability of an insurance company's business. Expressed as a percentage, this is the ratio of loss and LAE incurred to net earned premium.

Net operating expense ratio (non-GAAP). The net operating expense ratio (non-GAAP) is one component of an insurance company's operational efficiency in administering its business. Expressed as a percentage, this is the ratio of net operating expense to net earned premium.

Net combined ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP). The net combined ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP) is a measure of an insurance company's overall underwriting profit. This is the sum of the net loss ratio and net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP). Management believes that this measure of underwriting profitability provides a more useful comparison to the combined ratio of other insurance companies involved in fewer acquisitions. Our definition of net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment is as follows:

Net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP). The net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP) is one component of an insurance company's operational efficiency in administering its business. Expressed as a percentage, this is the ratio of net operating expense before non-cash amortization of intangible assets and non-cash impairment of goodwill to net earned premium.

Net operating expense ratio, net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment, net combined ratio and net combined ratio before amortization and impairment are considered non-GAAP financial measures under applicable SEC rules because a component of those ratios, net operating expense, is calculated by offsetting acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses and general and administrative expenses by ceding commission income and service and fee income, and is therefore a non-GAAP measure. We use net operating expense ratio (non-

GAAP), net operating expense ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP), net combined ratio (non-GAAP) and net combined ratio before amortization and impairment (non-GAAP) to evaluate financial performance against historical results and establish targets on a consolidated basis. We believe this presentation enhances the understanding of our results by eliminating what we believe are volatile and unusual events and presenting the ratios with what we believe are the underlying run rates of the business. Other companies may calculate these measures differently, and, therefore, their measures may not be comparable to those used by us. For a reconciliation of net operating expense, see "Results of Operations - Consolidated Results of Operations for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2020, and 2019, (Unaudited)" below.







        Results of Operations
        Consolidated Results of Operations for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2020, and
        2019, (Unaudited)
                                                                                                           Three Months Ended June 30,
                                                                            2020                                                                                                                          2019
                                                              Reciprocal                                                                           Reciprocal
                                             NGHC              Exchanges          Eliminations             Total                 NGHC              Exchanges           Eliminations             Total
        Underwriting revenues:                                                                                (amounts in thousands)
        . . .
        


Jul 31, 2020

COMTEX_368694727/2041/2020-07-31T09:20:36

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