By Philip van Doorn
Now that the S&P 500 has hit a new closing low for 2022, it is a good time to rerun a screen of low-volatility dividend stocks that may perform relatively better.
An initial screen of the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -1.47% , from June 29, resulted in a list of 19 stocks that met quality criteria set by Lewis Altfest, CEO of Altfest Personal Wealth Management, which is based in New York and manages about $1.5 billion for private clients.
Altfest’s screen was designed to help investors identify potential stocks for long-term investments — that is, for commitments of several years, at least — with some implied downside protection. Any stock screen is only a first step for your own consideration of companies’ less tangible quality factors.
Here’s a year-to-date price chart to illustrate the broad market’s action before and after we did the first screen:
From the previous closing low on June 16, the S&P 500 rose 17% through Aug. 16. Then it took a 15% flop through Sept. 26, hitting its lowest closing level since Dec. 14, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Read: The Dow just joined the S&P 500 in a bear market: What investors need to know
First, we’ll lay out the criteria, with results from a new screen as of the close on Sept. 26. Then we’ll summarize changes to the list and show how the June 29 list has performed, even though the intention of the first screen wasn’t to “pick winners” for a period of less than three months.
New dividend-stock screen
Here are the screening criteria, with the number of companies meeting each among the S&P 500:
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Beta for the past 12 months of 1.00 or less, when compared with the price movement of the entire index: 298 companies. For this screen, a beta of less than 1 indicates a stock’s price has been less volatile than the S&P 500 over the past year.
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Dividend yield of at least 3.50%: 78 companies.
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Expected earnings per share for 2024 increasing at least 4% from 2023, based on estimates among analysts polled by FactSet: 50 companies.
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Expected sales for 2024 increasing at least 4% from 2023: 22 companies. We are using calendar-year estimates for earnings and sales; many companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar.
Here are the 22 companies identified by the new screen, sorted by dividend yield:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Expected increase in EPS – 2024 | Expected increase in sales – 2024 | 12-month beta | On June 29 list? |
| V.F. Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/206706147/composite VFC | 5.71% | 9% | 6% | 0.98 | Yes |
| Philip Morris International Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/201611010/composite PM | 5.63% | 9% | 9% | 0.54 | Yes |
| Intel Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/203649727/composite INTC | 5.41% | 8% | 5% | 0.86 | No |
| International Business Machines Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/203856914/composite IBM | 5.41% | 5% | 4% | 0.51 | Yes |
| Boston Properties Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/203540753/composite BXP | 5.26% | 9% | 6% | 0.87 | No |
| Healthpeak Properties Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/205497622/composite PEAK | 5.12% | 16% | 8% | 0.78 | No |
| Realty Inc.ome Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/200487782/composite O | 4.89% | 4% | 9% | 0.54 | Yes |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/202967011/composite PNW | 4.88% | 7% | 4% | 0.62 | Yes |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206785129/composite DLR | 4.79% | 22% | 7% | 0.90 | Yes |
| Omnicom Group Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/209996569/composite OMC | 4.52% | 8% | 4% | 0.73 | No |
| Edison International | /zigman2/quotes/206923834/composite EIX | 4.43% | 7% | 4% | 0.82 | No |
| Ventas Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206376229/composite VTR | 4.34% | 31% | 7% | 0.57 | Yes |
| Stanley Black & Decker Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206369278/composite SWK | 4.06% | 27% | 5% | 0.92 | No |
| Hasbro Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/201249319/composite HAS | 3.94% | 17% | 7% | 0.73 | No |
| Morgan Stanley | /zigman2/quotes/209104354/composite MS | 3.89% | 13% | 4% | 0.94 | Yes |
| Darden Restaurants Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/200092615/composite DRI | 3.81% | 13% | 6% | 0.91 | Yes |
| Cisco Systems Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/209509471/composite CSCO | 3.75% | 6% | 4% | 0.77 | No |
| Southern Co. | /zigman2/quotes/208000495/composite SO | 3.72% | 9% | 4% | 0.55 | Yes |
| UDR Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/200760603/composite UDR | 3.72% | 28% | 7% | 0.85 | No |
| Welltower Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/200485564/composite WELL | 3.71% | 39% | 12% | 0.60 | No |
| Essex Property Trust Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/207865118/composite ESS | 3.65% | 12% | 4% | 0.74 | No |
| Corning Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/200045496/composite GLW | 3.61% | 10% | 6% | 0.93 | No |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
Click on the tickers to begin your own research about any of the companies.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
Checking in with the June 29 group
Among the 22 companies that passed the new screen, 10 had passed the June 29 screen. So here’s a new screen for the entire June 29 group, in its original order, with companies that no longer pass in bolded typeface. Screen elements that no longer pass are bolded:
| Company | Ticker | Dividend yield | Expected increase in EPS – 2024 | Expected increase in sales – 2024 | Beta | Price change since June 28 | 2022 Price change |
| Vornado Realty Trust | /zigman2/quotes/207195881/composite VNO | 9.09% | -44% | 5% | 0.93 | -21% | -44% |
| Oneok Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/205201756/composite OKE | 7.39% | 5% | 6% | 1.03 | -11% | -14% |
| Philip Morris International Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/201611010/composite PM | 5.63% | 9% | 9% | 0.54 | -12% | -5% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/203410933/composite WBA | 5.87% | 8% | 3% | 0.78 | -20% | -37% |
| International Business Machines Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/203856914/composite IBM | 5.41% | 5% | 4% | 0.51 | -14% | -9% |
| Pinnacle West Capital Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/202967011/composite PNW | 4.88% | 7% | 4% | 0.62 | -5% | -1% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust | /zigman2/quotes/202394259/composite FRT | 4.91% | 2% | 4% | 0.95 | -10% | -35% |
| V.F. Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/206706147/composite VFC | 5.71% | 9% | 6% | 0.98 | -24% | -52% |
| Realty Income Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/200487782/composite O | 4.89% | 4% | 9% | 0.54 | -12% | -15% |
| Truist Financial Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/200481602/composite TFC | 4.79% | 2% | 2% | 0.86 | -10% | -26% |
| Kimco Realty Corp. | /zigman2/quotes/202836571/composite KIM | 4.88% | 13% | 4% | 1.02 | -11% | -27% |
| U.S. Bancorp | /zigman2/quotes/206934678/composite USB | 4.68% | 10% | 2% | 0.95 | -12% | -27% |
| Darden Restaurants Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/200092615/composite DRI | 3.81% | 13% | 6% | 0.91 | 5% | -20% |
| Southern Co. | /zigman2/quotes/208000495/composite SO | 3.72% | 9% | 4% | 0.55 | 4% | 7% |
| Principal Financial Group Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/201030797/composite PFG | 3.59% | 9% | 6% | 1.01 | 5% | -1% |
| Cardinal Health Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206646342/composite CAH | 3.01% | 17% | 5% | 0.71 | 22% | 28% |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206785129/composite DLR | 4.79% | 22% | 7% | 0.90 | -24% | -42% |
| Morgan Stanley | /zigman2/quotes/209104354/composite MS | 3.89% | 13% | 4% | 0.94 | 2% | -19% |
| Ventas Inc. | /zigman2/quotes/206376229/composite VTR | 4.34% | 31% | 7% | 0.57 | -19% | -19% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
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