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Feb. 19, 2022, 7:40 a.m. EST

As investors punish Shopify, these 15 ecommerce companies are expected to grow sales the most through 2023

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By Philip van Doorn

Shopify had a blowout fourth quarter, with sales rising 41% from a year earlier, the company reported after the market close on Feb. 15.

Sales are the main objective of a company working at the forefront of the shift to ecommerce. But Shopify’s stock fell 26% over the following two trading sessions, even after company reported results that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations for revenue and earnings.

Read: Shopify sees a sales slowdown in the first half of 2022.

The above headline from Barron’s spells out the problem in this market environment for any highly valued tech stock: Even in a growing economy with better-than-expected retail sales , if a company’s own sales outlook for the months ahead disappoint investors, the stock can crash.

While we cannot predict which highly valued ecommerce companies might be next to disappoint investors, we can look ahead to see which are expected to increase sales the most quickly. A list of these expected rapid-growers derived from the holdings of three ecommerce exchange-traded funds is below.

A high valuation in a touchy market

Here’s a three-year price chart for Shopify Inc. /zigman2/quotes/209033712/composite SHOP +5.88% through the close on Feb. 15 — that is, before the company announced its fourth-quarter results:

The stock was up fivefold for three years before Shopify put out its fourth-quarter results. And the stock was trading for 14.5 times the consensus forward sales estimate among analysts polled by FactSet. That’s a very high valuation when compared with a price/sales valuation of 2.6 for the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +3.06% and 2.9 for a venerable internet services highflyer such as Amazon.com Inc. /zigman2/quotes/210331248/composite AMZN +3.58% .

Investors were paying through the nose for Shopify’s stock. Then again, the stock had traded as high as 47.1 times the consensus forward sales estimate in July 2020.

Three ecommerce ETFs

In order to come up with a list of ecommerce stocks for a screen, we looked at three ETFs focusing on this industry group:

  • The ProShares Online Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/208410191/composite ONLN +3.72% has $581 million in assets under management and holds 39 stocks. It is heavily concentrated, with Amazon making up 25% of the portfolio and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. /zigman2/quotes/201948298/composite BABA +4.91% the second-largest holding at 13.6%. The third-largest holding is eBay Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204653455/composite EBAY +6.28% , at 4.5%.

  • The Amplify Online Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/206522380/composite IBUY +3.76% has $475 million in assets, holds 79 stocks. The individual stocks are equal-weighted within the portfolio, which itself is 70% weighted to the U.S. According to FactSet, this approach “keeps giants [such as] Amazon from dominating the basket, but also introduces a bias to smaller and possibly more risky firms.”

  • The Global X E-Commerce ETF /zigman2/quotes/201703903/composite EBIZ +4.09% has $151 million in assets. It holds 40 stocks and has a modified weighting by market capitalization. Its top five holdings make up 13.1% of the portfolio. Expedia Group Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202291990/composite EXPE +8.85% is the largest holding, at 6.7%, followed by Booking Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203576210/composite BKNG +5.23% at 6.4% and JD.com Inc. /zigman2/quotes/205122565/composite JD +3.41% at 5.5%.

Leaving the ETFs in size order, here are projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales per share through 2023, based on consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet:

ETF Ticker Two-year estimated sales CAGR Estimated revenue per share – 2021 Estimated revenue per share – 2022 Estimated revenue per share – 2023
ProShares Online Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/208410191/composite ONLN 7.9% $34.50 $37.39 $40.19
Amplify Online Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/206522380/composite IBUY 12.3% $49.79 $56.60 $62.74
Global X E-Commerce ETF /zigman2/quotes/201703903/composite EBIZ 10.0% $16.60 $18.35 $20.09
Source: FactSet

Ecommerce stock screen

Together, the three ETFs hold 78 stocks. Among those, 63 are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet for estimates, ratings and price targets.

Here are the 15 companies analysts expect to achieve the highest sales CAGR through calendar 2023. The consensus sales estimates are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Company Ticker Country Two-year estimated sales CAGR Estimated sales – 2021 Estimated sales – 2022 Estimated sales – 2023
Ozon Holdings PLC ADR /zigman2/quotes/222657771/composite OZON Cyprus 59.8% 2,349 $4,017 $5,998
Global-e Online Ltd. /zigman2/quotes/226569420/composite GLBE Israel 53.0% $240 $367 $563
Dada Nexus Ltd. ADR DADA-US China 52.6% $1,105 $1,686 $2,573
Sea Ltd. (Singapore) ADR Class A /zigman2/quotes/202797958/composite SE Singapore 41.4% $9,656 $14,251 $19,299
Jumia Technologies AG ADR /zigman2/quotes/210570938/composite JMIA Germany 39.8% $170 $227 $332
Uber Technologies Inc. /zigman2/quotes/211348248/composite UBER U.S. 38.7% $17,560 $27,430 $33,769
Shopify Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/209033712/composite SHOP Canada 34.0% $4,573 $6,093 $8,214
MercadoLibre Inc. MELI-US Uruguay 33.6% $6,971 $9,352 $12,443
TripAdvisor Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206118480/composite TRIP U.S. 32.5% $909 $1,373 $1,595
Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR /zigman2/quotes/210510831/composite TCOM China 31.2% $3,088 $3,869 $5,319
FIGS, Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/203784030/composite FIGS United States 30.9% $419 $547 $717
Pinduoduo, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A /zigman2/quotes/208876581/composite PDD China 30.8% $15,388 $20,251 $26,320
Booking Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203576210/composite BKNG United States 30.2% $10,838 $15,722 $18,384
Carvana Co. Class A /zigman2/quotes/206651606/composite CVNA United States 29.6% $12,575 $16,488 $21,134
Source: FactSet

You can click on the tickers for more about each company.

/zigman2/quotes/209033712/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 385.23
+21.40 +5.88%
Volume: 4.66M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
310.29
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$45.90 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
3,911.74
+116.01 +3.06%
Volume: 3.46B
June 24, 2022 5:05p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210331248/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 116.46
+4.02 +3.58%
Volume: 69.83M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
56.17
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1144.01 billion
Rev. per Employee
$297,107
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208410191/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 36.22
+1.30 +3.72%
Volume: 40,610
June 24, 2022 4:00p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201948298/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 117.62
+5.51 +4.91%
Volume: 27.01M
June 24, 2022 4:04p
P/E Ratio
38.36
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$293.26 billion
Rev. per Employee
$528,633
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204653455/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 45.67
+2.70 +6.28%
Volume: 20.44M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.93%
Market Cap
$24.06 billion
Rev. per Employee
$953,333
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206522380/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 46.97
+1.70 +3.76%
Volume: 38,491
June 24, 2022 4:10p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201703903/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 18.06
+0.71 +4.09%
Volume: 258,412
June 24, 2022 4:00p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202291990/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 102.34
+8.32 +8.85%
Volume: 4.26M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
88.11
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$14.77 billion
Rev. per Employee
$648,716
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/203576210/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 1,931.05
+95.99 +5.23%
Volume: 509,208
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
156.17
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$74.55 billion
Rev. per Employee
$616,355
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205122565/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 64.01
+2.11 +3.41%
Volume: 11.41M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$96.15 billion
Rev. per Employee
$399,673
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208410191/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 36.22
+1.30 +3.72%
Volume: 40,610
June 24, 2022 4:00p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206522380/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 46.97
+1.70 +3.76%
Volume: 38,491
June 24, 2022 4:10p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201703903/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 18.06
+0.71 +4.09%
Volume: 258,412
June 24, 2022 4:00p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/222657771/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 11.60
-1.03 -8.16%
Volume: 0.00
Feb. 25, 2022 5:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1.93 billion
Rev. per Employee
$58,577
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/226569420/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 23.10
+1.81 +8.50%
Volume: 1.84M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$3.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$582,336
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202797958/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 80.47
+2.27 +2.90%
Volume: 5.92M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$43.62 billion
Rev. per Employee
$164,803
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210570938/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 7.09
+0.43 +6.46%
Volume: 6.21M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$665.18 million
Rev. per Employee
$42,939
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/211348248/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 23.03
+0.66 +2.95%
Volume: 38.13M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$43.93 billion
Rev. per Employee
$730,580
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/209033712/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 385.23
+21.40 +5.88%
Volume: 4.66M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
310.29
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$45.90 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206118480/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 19.32
+1.02 +5.57%
Volume: 4.04M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$2.56 billion
Rev. per Employee
$386,845
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210510831/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 23.65
+0.92 +4.05%
Volume: 3.91M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$14.28 billion
Rev. per Employee
$92,039
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/203784030/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 8.45
+0.57 +7.23%
Volume: 17.43M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1.30 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.68M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208876581/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 65.96
+1.73 +2.69%
Volume: 14.22M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
45.31
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$80.50 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.53M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/203576210/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 1,931.05
+95.99 +5.23%
Volume: 509,208
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
156.17
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$74.55 billion
Rev. per Employee
$616,355
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206651606/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 31.52
+2.88 +10.06%
Volume: 15.43M
June 24, 2022 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$5.40 billion
Rev. per Employee
$669,809
loading...
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