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Oct. 5, 2022, 11:29 a.m. EDT

CPI fixings traders nudge up expectations after OPEC+ agreement, now see annual headline inflation rate of 7.5% for October

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By Vivien Lou Chen

Traders of derivatives-like instruments known as fixings nudged up their expectations for the next few U.S. consumer-price index reports after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day, starting in November. Fixing traders now expect the annual headline CPI rate for October to be 7.5%, up from almost 7.3% last Friday, and 6.8% for November, up from almost 6.6% previously. That would follow what they see as an 8.1% reading for September. Meanwhile, 5-, 10- and 30-year yields on Treasury inflation-protected securities were at 1.74%, 1.54%, and 1.69%, respectively, according to Tradeweb data --- still down from the multi-year highs reached on Sept. 30, suggesting the TIPS market may still be somewhat discounting the prospects of sustainably hot long-run inflation.

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