MarketWatch Premium Archives Subscribe

July 2, 2022, 11:47 a.m. EDT

Gold sentiment still hasn’t gotten excessively bearish, and that’s why the metal keeps falling

By Mark Hulbert

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Gold will continue to struggle until gold market timers become significantly more bearish.

That’s the lead sentence of a column I wrote two months ago that focused on a contrarian analysis of sentiment among gold market timers. And it remains just as applicable today. At no point since then has gold /zigman2/quotes/200593176/composite GLD -0.18% sentiment dropped into the “excessive bearishness” zone that triggers a contrarian buy signal.

And, sure enough, gold /zigman2/quotes/210034565/delayed GC00 -0.13% has struggled. Bullion today is trading for more than $90 per ounce less than it was then. Gold mining shares have performed even worse: The VanEck Gold Miners ETF /zigman2/quotes/206399889/composite GDX +0.38% is more than 20% lower today than in early May.

/zigman2/quotes/200593176/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 165.42
-0.29 -0.18%
Volume: 4.29M
Aug. 16, 2022 4:00p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210034565/delayed
US : U.S.: Nymex
$ 1,787.30
-2.40 -0.13%
Volume: 34,627
Aug. 17, 2022 6:42a
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206399889/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 26.73
+0.10 +0.38%
Volume: 11.74M
Aug. 16, 2022 4:00p
loading...

Partner Center

Link to MarketWatch's Slice.