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Feb. 22, 2020, 2:18 p.m. EST

Here are two charts that show the stock market isn’t anything like that of the dot-com mania

Distribution of big gainers isn’t comparable to 2000

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By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch


Getty Images
The current market’s not actually like it was during the days of Bill Clinton in the White House.

The huge surge in stocks like Tesla /zigman2/quotes/203558040/lastsale TSLA -5.63%  , Virgin Galactic /zigman2/quotes/208333884/lastsale SPCE -2.56%   and Stamps.com /zigman2/quotes/202777086/lastsale STMP -0.07%   have brought back some trader memories of the heady days of the dot-com boom.

But Robert Buckland, a global strategist at Citi, studied stock market distributions to show the market now is not really that similar to that of the dot-com days.

He looked at the components of the MSCI World stock market index over 12 months and weighted returns by average market capitalization, both now and when the market peaked in 2000.

The current market is being led higher by the tech giants — Amazon /zigman2/quotes/210331248/lastsale AMZN +0.58%  , Facebook /zigman2/quotes/205064656/lastsale FB -0.88%  , Alphabet /zigman2/quotes/205453964/lastsale GOOG +1.38%  , Alibaba /zigman2/quotes/201948298/lastsale BABA +0.71%  , Microsoft /zigman2/quotes/207732364/lastsale MSFT +2.07%  and Apple /zigman2/quotes/202934861/lastsale AAPL +1.67%  .

But the dot-com era had many Tesla-like big performers. In March 2000, there were a number of companies that had tripled over 12 months.

The dot-com era also had a more extreme distribution of under-performers.

What’s his conclusion? It’s not a good one for those hoping for a rebound in value stocks.

“The message for beleaguered value investors is that things could get much worse before they get better,” Buckland writes.

“In the meantime, we are not especially surprised by Tesla-like moves in valuations. That is what happens towards the end of a growth bull market. In fact, it is a dangerous time to be a short-seller.”

/zigman2/quotes/203558040/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 454.47
-27.09 -5.63%
Volume: 19.86M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$88.79 billion
Rev. per Employee
$439,627
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208333884/lastsale
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 12.96
-0.34 -2.56%
Volume: 8.60M
April 2, 2020 6:30p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$2.60 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202777086/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 124.18
-0.09 -0.07%
Volume: 218,250
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
37.41
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$2.12 billion
Rev. per Employee
$497,820
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210331248/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 1,918.83
+11.13 +0.58%
Volume: 4.34M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
83.36
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$949.76 billion
Rev. per Employee
$359,671
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205064656/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 158.19
-1.41 -0.88%
Volume: 20.89M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
24.58
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$454.93 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.57M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205453964/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 1,120.84
+15.22 +1.38%
Volume: 1.96M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
22.79
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$835.52 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.39M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201948298/lastsale
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 188.90
+1.34 +0.71%
Volume: 13.41M
April 2, 2020 6:30p
P/E Ratio
20.23
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$503.17 billion
Rev. per Employee
$781,259
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207732364/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 155.26
+3.15 +2.07%
Volume: 49.63M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
27.03
Dividend Yield
1.31%
Market Cap
$1156.96 billion
Rev. per Employee
$902,473
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202934861/lastsale
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 244.93
+4.02 +1.67%
Volume: 41.48M
April 2, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
19.34
Dividend Yield
1.26%
Market Cap
$1054.10 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.98M
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Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch markets editor for Europe. Follow him on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.

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