Philip van Doorn

Deep Dive Archives | Email alerts

Dec. 21, 2019, 9:48 a.m. EST

Here’s how Wall Street’s favorite stock picks turned out in 2019

Their small-cap selections fared best

new
Watchlist Relevance
LEARN MORE

Want to see how this story relates to your watchlist?

Just add items to create a watchlist now:

  • X
    S&P 500 Index (SPX)
  • X
    American Century Mid Cap Growth Impact ETF (MID)
  • X
    S&P Small Cap 600 Index (SML)

or Cancel Already have a watchlist? Log In

By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch


Bloomberg
Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line have matched the performance of the S&P 500 in 2019.

As we head to a new year, predictions for financial markets and stock picks for 2020 are flowing. It’s also time for annual mea culpas, as stock pickers admit their failures — and, of course, brag about their successes.

It’s difficult for a fund manager to beat the broader market, which is a reason why low-cost index funds are so popular. The S&P 500 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +1.60%  has returned 30% (with dividends reinvested) through Dec. 16. The benchmark index last performed so well in 2013, when it jumped 32%.

MarketWatch’s Jeff Reeves wrote an entertaining piece about his mixed record for 2019 stock selections, and readers chimed in with their own amusing comments.

We have already listed the favorite large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap stock picks among Wall Street analysts for 2020. Let’s see how their selections for 2019 performed.

How Wall Street’s favorites fared

On Jan. 2, we narrowed the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index /zigman2/quotes/219506813/composite MID +2.80%  and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599868/delayed SML +0.98% to companies covered by at least five sell-side analysts with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings. We then listed the 20 for each index with the highest implied upside for 2019, based on consensus price targets.

Large-cap

A favorite large-cap stock pick for 2019 was Anadarko Petroleum. The stock closed at $43.84 on Dec. 31, 2018, and analysts’ consensus price target for the shares on that date was $76.86. After Anadarko agreed in April to be acquired by Chevron /zigman2/quotes/205871374/composite CVX +0.04%  for $65 a share, Occidental Petroleum /zigman2/quotes/207018272/composite OXY -3.95%  outbid Chevron to take out Anadarko for $76 a share in August. Activist investor Carl Icahn sent a letter to Occidental’s shareholders criticizing the deal, and Occidental’s management team and board of directors.

The consensus price target wasn’t met, but that $76 takeout price was a 73% premium from Anadarko’s share price on Dec. 31. So this one is in the “win” column for the analysts.

Here are the other 19 large-cap picks for this year, with total returns (which include reinvested dividends) through Dec. 16, 2019:

Company Ticker Industry Total return - 2019
Aptiv PLC /zigman2/quotes/204162392/composite APTV Auto Parts: OEM 56%
LKQ Corp. /zigman2/quotes/210317139/composite LKQ Automotive Aftermarket 51%
Allergan plc Pharmaceuticals: Generic 45%
Conagra Brands Inc. /zigman2/quotes/200394144/composite CAG Food: Major Diversified 39%
Electronic Arts Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206954087/composite EA Recreational Products 34%
SVB Financial Group /zigman2/quotes/200548254/composite SIVB Regional Banks 32%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. /zigman2/quotes/204183397/composite NCLH Hotels/Resorts/Cruiselines 30%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206262068/composite ALXN Biotechnology 14%
PVH Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208313660/composite PVH Apparel/Footwear 13%
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. /zigman2/quotes/206736173/composite PXD Oil & Gas Production 10%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. /zigman2/quotes/209634297/composite MPC Oil Refining/Marketing 7%
TechnipFMC Plc /zigman2/quotes/207530935/composite FTI Oilfield Services/Equipment 4%
Diamondback Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201200230/composite FANG Oil & Gas Production -5%
Halliburton Co. /zigman2/quotes/210488727/composite HAL Oilfield Services/Equipment -5%
American Airlines Group Inc. /zigman2/quotes/209207041/composite AAL Airlines -12%
Albemarle Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200578017/composite ALB Chemicals: Specialty -12%
Concho Resources Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208942254/composite CXO Oil & Gas Production -21%
Mylan NV /zigman2/quotes/209413137/composite MYL Pharmaceuticals: Generic -31%
Source: FactSet

Including Anadarko, eight of the 20 large-cap picks matched or beat the return of the S&P 500 in 2019. So 12 underperformed the index, with six having negative returns. Eleven of the 20 returned at least 10%.

Mid-cap

Here’s how the 20 mid-cap picks performed in 2019 through Dec. 16:

Company Ticker Industry Total return - 2019
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200002947/composite VAC Other Consumer Services 82%
Lumentum Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204419752/composite LITE Telecommunications Equipment 80%
MKS Instruments Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208573663/composite MKSI Electronic Production Equipment 72%
MasTec Inc. /zigman2/quotes/207965492/composite MTZ Engineering & Construction 52%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/206974312/composite KNX Trucking 48%
Boyd Gaming Corp. /zigman2/quotes/206215159/composite BYD Casinos/Gaming 44%
Thor Industries Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202832948/composite THO Recreational Products 36%
Brunswick Corp. /zigman2/quotes/207511569/composite BC Recreational Products 32%
HealthEquity Inc. /zigman2/quotes/210521638/composite HQY Investment Managers 22%
East West Bancorp Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206183036/composite EWBC Regional Banks 14%
Cabot Corp. /zigman2/quotes/205436466/composite CBT Industrial Specialties 13%
SLM Corp /zigman2/quotes/205828282/composite SLM Finance/Rental/Leasing 9%
Apergy Corp. Oilfield Services/Equipment 8%
WPX Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204372171/composite WPX Oil & Gas Production 5%
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204120302/composite PTEN Contract Drilling 0%
Allegheny Technologies Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202946054/composite ATI Steel -2%
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202030140/composite LGND Biotechnology -22%
Granite Construction Inc. /zigman2/quotes/200569846/composite GVA Engineering & Construction -29%
Callon Petroleum Co. /zigman2/quotes/201917664/composite CPE Oil & Gas Production -32%
Inogen Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite INGN Medical Specialties -43%
Source: FactSet
/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
3,298.46
+51.87 +1.60%
Volume: 0.00
Sept. 25, 2020 5:06p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/219506813/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 41.82
+1.14 +2.80%
Volume: 322.00
Sept. 25, 2020 3:24p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210599868/delayed
US : S&P US
834.93
+8.13 +0.98%
Volume: 0.00
Sept. 25, 2020 5:06p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205871374/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 71.83
+0.03 +0.04%
Volume: 11.07M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:02p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
7.18%
Market Cap
$134.13 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.27M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207018272/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 10.22
-0.42 -3.95%
Volume: 30.81M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.39%
Market Cap
$9.51 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.60M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204162392/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 86.40
+2.07 +2.45%
Volume: 1.48M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
13.15
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$23.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$100,944
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210317139/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 27.08
-0.12 -0.44%
Volume: 4.20M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
14.93
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$8.24 billion
Rev. per Employee
$232,876
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200394144/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 35.12
+0.49 +1.41%
Volume: 2.25M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:02p
P/E Ratio
20.42
Dividend Yield
2.42%
Market Cap
$17.16 billion
Rev. per Employee
$717,048
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206954087/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 131.19
+1.87 +1.45%
Volume: 1.92M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
19.45
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$37.89 billion
Rev. per Employee
$571,613
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200548254/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 229.59
+4.08 +1.81%
Volume: 284,260
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
13.36
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$11.88 billion
Rev. per Employee
$923,271
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204183397/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 16.63
+2.00 +13.67%
Volume: 48.62M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$4.58 billion
Rev. per Employee
$182,383
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206262068/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 114.43
+2.41 +2.15%
Volume: 1.85M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
30.58
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$25.08 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.56M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208313660/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 61.50
-0.38 -0.61%
Volume: 952,074
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$4.37 billion
Rev. per Employee
$264,978
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206736173/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 85.90
-0.66 -0.76%
Volume: 1.22M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
34.20
Dividend Yield
2.56%
Market Cap
$14.11 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.95M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/209634297/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 28.63
+0.01 +0.03%
Volume: 6.65M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
8.10%
Market Cap
$18.63 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.59M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207530935/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 6.06
-0.28 -4.42%
Volume: 7.69M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:02p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.15%
Market Cap
$2.72 billion
Rev. per Employee
$339,268
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201200230/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 29.90
-0.09 -0.30%
Volume: 3.25M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
5.02%
Market Cap
$4.72 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.06M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210488727/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 12.37
-0.15 -1.20%
Volume: 18.48M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.46%
Market Cap
$10.87 billion
Rev. per Employee
$399,917
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/209207041/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 12.29
+0.52 +4.42%
Volume: 43.76M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$6.25 billion
Rev. per Employee
$345,547
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200578017/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 84.52
+1.21 +1.45%
Volume: 1.20M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
20.52
Dividend Yield
1.82%
Market Cap
$8.99 billion
Rev. per Employee
$572,025
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208942254/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 43.71
+0.12 +0.28%
Volume: 1.75M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.83%
Market Cap
$8.60 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.76M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/209413137/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 14.42
+0.21 +1.48%
Volume: 2.90M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
27.53
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$7.45 billion
Rev. per Employee
$326,506
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200002947/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 91.17
+3.23 +3.67%
Volume: 283,860
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$3.74 billion
Rev. per Employee
$129,043
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204419752/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 74.20
+1.17 +1.60%
Volume: 912,991
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
42.60
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$5.58 billion
Rev. per Employee
$453,140
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208573663/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 107.54
-0.52 -0.48%
Volume: 371,656
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
25.52
Dividend Yield
0.74%
Market Cap
$5.93 billion
Rev. per Employee
$427,769
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207965492/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 42.05
+0.57 +1.37%
Volume: 484,422
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
9.82
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$3.10 billion
Rev. per Employee
$363,654
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206974312/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 42.03
+0.45 +1.08%
Volume: 2.27M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
25.00
Dividend Yield
0.76%
Market Cap
$7.15 billion
Rev. per Employee
$234,389
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206215159/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 29.79
+1.62 +5.75%
Volume: 2.31M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$3.32 billion
Rev. per Employee
$111,885
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202832948/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 93.21
+1.26 +1.37%
Volume: 1.58M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
26.30
Dividend Yield
1.72%
Market Cap
$5.15 billion
Rev. per Employee
$409,842
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207511569/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 58.81
+0.25 +0.43%
Volume: 708,528
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.63%
Market Cap
$4.66 billion
Rev. per Employee
$321,686
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210521638/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 47.57
+1.42 +3.08%
Volume: 989,282
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$3.66 billion
Rev. per Employee
$279,691
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206183036/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 31.66
+0.45 +1.44%
Volume: 610,176
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
7.62
Dividend Yield
3.47%
Market Cap
$4.48 billion
Rev. per Employee
$564,703
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205436466/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 35.23
-0.14 -0.40%
Volume: 304,740
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
31.08
Dividend Yield
3.97%
Market Cap
$1.99 billion
Rev. per Employee
$726,739
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205828282/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 7.85
+0.07 +0.90%
Volume: 2.52M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
6.28
Dividend Yield
1.53%
Market Cap
$2.95 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.11M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204372171/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 4.44
+0.03 +0.68%
Volume: 10.37M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$2.49 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.72M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/204120302/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 2.86
-0.05 -1.55%
Volume: 6.45M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.80%
Market Cap
$535.04 million
Rev. per Employee
$415,875
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202946054/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 9.36
+0.28 +3.08%
Volume: 3.29M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1.19 billion
Rev. per Employee
$459,841
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202030140/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 97.18
+2.86 +3.03%
Volume: 216,009
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1.56 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.17M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200569846/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 17.63
+0.10 +0.57%
Volume: 199,376
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.95%
Market Cap
$824.04 million
Rev. per Employee
$582,178
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/201917664/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 4.85
-0.40 -7.62%
Volume: 4.23M
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$192.78 million
Rev. per Employee
$2.70M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 28.43
+0.92 +3.34%
Volume: 155,011
Sept. 25, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
98.03
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$627.34 million
Rev. per Employee
$325,852
loading...
1 2
This Story has 0 Comments
Be the first to comment
More News In
Investing

Story Conversation

Commenting FAQs »
Link to MarketWatch's Slice.