Bulletin
Investor Alert

New York Markets Open in:

Mark Hulbert

Mark Hulbert Archives | Email alerts

Sept. 29, 2020, 4:40 p.m. EDT

Here’s the shocking truth about Robinhood investors vs. Wall Street stock pros

Individual investors as a group are doing better than most U.S. equity mutual funds

new
Watchlist Relevance
LEARN MORE

Want to see how this story relates to your watchlist?

Just add items to create a watchlist now:

  • X
    S&P 500 Index (SPX)
  • X
    Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)
  • X
    Apple Inc. (AAPL)

or Cancel Already have a watchlist? Log In

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch


iStock/dima_sidelnikov

Call it the revenge of the small investor. For months now, small retail investors have been ridiculed by Wall Street professionals for being hyperactive traders — addicted to risk and hopelessly irrational. But just released academic research finds that, as a group, they’ve outperformed the market.

Yes, you read that right. The research, conducted by Ivo Welch, a finance professor at UCLA’s Anderson Graduate School of Management, is entitled Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the Covid Crisis . The National Bureau of Economic Research recently began circulating it in academic circles.

For the study, Welch obtained data reflecting all trades over the three-year period from mid-2018 to August 2020 at Robinhood, the online retail brokerage firm. Though he did not have data on the actual composition of each individual’s portfolio at the firm, Welch was able to see the number of individual accounts that owned each individual stock. (The data was collected, with Robinhood’s tacit blessing, by the website Robintrack.com .)

Armed with this data, Welch constructed a hypothetical portfolio that weighted each stock according to the number of Robinhood accounts that owned it. That is, if stock ABC was owned in twice as many Robinhood accounts as stock XYZ, then this hypothetical portfolio invested twice as much in ABC than in XYZ. Over the three years studied, this hypothetical portfolio beat the market (as represented by benchmarks such as the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -1.86%  ), both in raw unadjusted terms as well as after risk adjustment.

To put these small retail investors’ achievement in perspective, consider the data compiled by S&P Dow Jones Indices on the performance of actively-managed mutual funds . For the most recent three-year period (through the end of 2019), 71.9% of domestic equity funds underperformed their benchmarks.

You might wonder if the three-year performance of Welch’s hypothetical Robinhood portfolio is not as impressive as it otherwise appears — a one-time fluke. To test for that possibility, Welch told me in an interview, he constructed an algorithm that was able to do a decent job replicating the actual composition of his Robinhood portfolio between 2018 and 2020. The algorithm keys off stocks’ trading volume, since Robinhood investors tend to favor stocks with lots of trading volume.

In backtesting back to 1980, Welch found that the portfolio constructed by this algorithm held its own against the overall market, and actually came out ahead according to some performance evaluation tests.

The wisdom of crowds

It’s hard to square Welch’s results with the narrative that the small retail investors on the Robinhood site are a pure expression of irrational exuberance.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t individual examples of such exuberance. For example, Welch found that, at one point in January 2019, stock of Aurora Cannabis /zigman2/quotes/210559470/composite ACB -5.98%   was held in more Robinhood portfolios than was Apple /zigman2/quotes/202934861/composite AAPL +0.0087%  , even though Apple at the time had a market cap that was more than 100 times larger. Since the beginning of 2019, Apple’s stock has gained more than 190% while Aurora Cannabis’ stock has lost more than 90% (according to FactSet data).

Welch’s findings are an illustration that, while not every investor is rational, the collective wisdom of the crowd is often superior. Keep that in mind the next time you hear a Wall Street guru insist that small investors who frequent platforms such as Robinhood don’t know what they’re talking about. There’s a distinct possibility that, as a group, those small investors are doing better than the guru.

I note in this regard that Welch’s findings are consistent with those from another study this summer, which used a different methodology to analyze the behavior of investors at the Robinhood site. That author of that earlier study found that “Robinhood investors have been buying riskier stocks, but have also been performing slightly better than the market.”

I note that Robinhood in August stopped making updated data available that would enable the kind of research that was conducted by Welch. A spokesperson for Robinhood explained in an email that the firm did so because “the trend data could be reported by third parties in a way that could be misconstrued or misunderstood.” News stories at the time suggested that Robinhood felt that third parties were making it appear that the company was “pandering to day traders.”

Yet Welch’s research suggests that Robinhood investors, as a group, are not the irrational thrill-seeking traders that some of these narratives would have us believe.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at

Plus: How to get your stock trades through when Robinhood, Vanguard and other brokerages go down, as they did this week

More: How the little guy Is fueling the stock market’s wild ride

/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
3,400.97
-64.42 -1.86%
Volume: 2.43B
Oct. 26, 2020 5:17p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210559470/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 4.40
-0.28 -5.98%
Volume: 6.36M
Oct. 26, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$566.43 million
Rev. per Employee
$94,401
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/202934861/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 115.05
+0.01 +0.0087%
Volume: 111.85M
Oct. 26, 2020 4:00p
P/E Ratio
34.98
Dividend Yield
0.71%
Market Cap
$1994.49 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.98M
loading...

Mark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited.

This Story has 0 Comments
Be the first to comment
More News In
Investing

Story Conversation

Commenting FAQs »

Partner Center

About Mark Hulbert

RSS News feed

Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which since 1980 has been tracking the performance of hundreds of investment advisors. The HFD...

Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which since 1980 has been tracking the performance of hundreds of investment advisors. The HFD became a service of MarketWatch in April 2002. In addition to being a Senior Columnist for MarketWatch, Hulbert writes a monthly column for Barron’s.com and a column on investment strategies for the Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. A frequent guest on television and radio shows, you may have seen Hulbert on CNBC, Wall Street Week, or ABC’s World News This Morning. Most recently, Dow Jones and MarketWatch launched a new weekly newsletter based on Hulbert's research, entitled Hulbert on Markets: What’s Working Now.

More from Mark Hulbert

  1. ‘Trump stocks’ have significantly lagged the U.S. market since 2016 — while ‘Clinton stocks’ have soared
  2. How to invest in the S&P 500 without betting hard on the ‘FAAMG’ stocks that are 20% of the index
  3. Only two other times since George Washington was president has the U.S. stock market been as far above trend as it is now
  4. Donald Trump would want this baseball team to win the World Series
  5. How to celebrate National Retirement Security Week
Link to MarketWatch's Slice.