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May 28, 2019, 3:58 p.m. EDT · CORRECTED

Home-price gains are weakest in 7 years, and that’s a good thing, Case-Shiller says

Prices were strongest in southern states

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By Andrea Riquier

Correcting headline to show that the home-price increase is weakest in seven years, not that prices fell.


Istockphoto
High angle view of several suburban houses in sunny summer afternoon.

The numbers: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, compared to February, and was 2.7% higher compared to a year ago. That was the slowest pace of annual growth since August 2012.

What happened: The pace of home-price growth continues to decelerate. That’s good news for the housing market, say most experts: it gives would-be buyers a fighting chance, but still provides some equity appreciation for owners. In the three-month period ending in March, four of Case-Shiller’s 20 cities had higher price increases than in the previous month — hardly a sign of a fizzling national market.

Related: Another real estate evolution: New Redfin program will enable home purchases with no agent

Big picture: Americans still like sunny climates. The cities with the highest price gains in March were Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa. Even with the gain, bargains may be found in these metro areas. Prices in Las Vegas and Phoenix are nearly 20% lower than their 2006 peaks, according to Case-Shiller; Tampa’s price index is about 9% lower.

Only one city, New York, was negative during the month, likely due to already high prices but also the effect of tax-law changes that capped the amount of state and local taxes residents can deduct.

Metro area Monthly change 12-Month change
Atlanta 0.7% 4.7%
Boston 1.6% 3.8%
Charlotte 0.8% 4.0%
Chicago 0.6% 1.8%
Cleveland 0.9% 3.5%
Dallas 0.3% 3.0%
Denver 1.0% 4.3%
Detroit 0.4% 3.3%
Las Vegas 0.1% 8.2%
Los Angeles 0.5% 1.3%
Miami 0.6% 4.3%
Minneapolis 1.1% 3.7%
New York -0.1% 2.3%
Phoenix 0.4% 6.1%
Portland 0.7% 2.6%
San Diego 1.2% 1.3%
San Francisco 2.1% 1.4%
Seattle 1.6% 1.6%
Tampa 0.5% 5.3%
Washington 0.9% 2.8%

What they’re saying: “Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, which compiles and distributes the Case-Shiller index. “Mortgage rates are at 4% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, unemployment is close to a 50-year low, low inflation and moderate increases in real incomes would be expected to support a strong housing market. Measures of household debt service do not reveal any problems and consumer sentiment surveys are upbeat. The difficulty facing housing may be too-high price increases.”

Related: The man behind Case-Shiller on why the housing index has no Houston and why that’s no problem

Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note /zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y +2.01%  , which sets the tone for fixed-rate mortgages, ticked down on Tuesday morning, offering a boost to would-be house hunters.

See also: Size matters: Tracking the economy through new-home square footage

/zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime
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Aug. 21, 2019 7:06a
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Andrea Riquier reports on housing and banking from MarketWatch's New York newsroom. Follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.

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