By Chris Matthews, MarketWatch
“The president will want to shift the narrative to a trade deal,” he said. “When push comes to shove, he wants to put points on the board for the 2020 election, and the biggest point he can put up is a deal with China.”
The latest escalation of hostilities between congressional Democrats and the Trump administration could also imperil other important legislation. “We will need to monitor for whether further polarization in Washington could have a knock-on effect on bipartisan cooperation over budget issues or infrastructure spending,” wrote Michael Ryan, chief investment officer for Americas at UBS, in a Thursday note.
Threats of another shutdown loom, as Congress has only been able to approve stopgap spending measures that avoid hot-button issues like funding for an extension of the southern U.S. border wall, while passage of a renegotiated North American free-trade agreement could also be put in doubt as the impeachment inquiry takes center stage.
Along with the many political variables for investors to consider, the coming week will feature some key economic reports, including the closely watched ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, along with data on August construction spending.
On Thursday, ISM will issue its reading of the services sector, while the government will issue new estimates of factory orders for August and new applications for jobless benefits for the week ended Sept. 28.
Wednesday will bring Automatic Data Processing Inc .’s /zigman2/quotes/207661132/composite ADP -0.38% report on private sector job growth, ahead of Friday’s all-important nonfarm payrolls report, where investors will get an updated snapshot of the U.S. labor sector and wage growth. Any cracks in this picture could create more volatility, given the importance of a strong U.S. consumer to the longevity of the current economic expansion.
In corporate news, McCormick & Co . Inc . /zigman2/quotes/206739653/composite MKC -0.80% is expected to deliver an earnings report before the start of trade on Tuesday, while Stitch Fix Inc . /zigman2/quotes/208173073/composite SFIX +4.82% will release results after the close. Bed Bath and Beyond Inc. /zigman2/quotes/209801102/composite BBBY +0.68% will report Wednesday along with home builder Lennar Corp. /zigman2/quotes/202536373/composite LEN -0.45% .
On Thursday, investors will receive financial results from Constellation Brands Inc . /zigman2/quotes/207737284/composite STZ -0.19% , Costco Wholesale Corp . /zigman2/quotes/201191698/composite COST +0.21% and PepsiCo Inc . /zigman2/quotes/208744353/composite PEP -0.65%