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Aug. 10, 2022, 9:08 a.m. EDT

Interest-rate futures anticipate smaller Fed hike in September as inflation cools

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By Joseph Adinolfi

Fed funds futures are now pricing in greater odds of a 50 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its next policy meeting in September --- a dramatic shift from just a day ago --- following the release of July inflation data. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures, which traders use to place bets on the path of the central bank's interest-rate policy, are pricing in roughly 70% odds of a 50 basis point hike in September. That's nearly a complete reversal from one day earlier, when they were pricing in roughly 70% odds of a 75 basis point hike. The Fed's next two-day policy meeting is scheduled to begin on Sept. 20, with the interest-rate decision expected to be announced the following day. Headline CPI in July came in at 8.5%, which was lower than the 8.7% consensus forecast from FactSet, and the 9.1% reading from June, which marked the highest level of inflation in roughly four decades.

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