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Philip van Doorn

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June 8, 2020, 4:20 p.m. EDT

Investors’ overreaction creates short-term opportunities in stocks

Low prices from mid-March presented investors with bargains

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By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch


Apache Corp.
An Apache oil rig in the Granite Wash Basin, in Texas. The company's shares rose 284% from March 31 through June 5.

The remarkable recovery of U.S. stocks illustrates how markets tend to overshoot major events. This can set up opportunities for large gains over short periods. It also underlines the need to be careful with statistics.

Here’s a chart showing the movement of the S&P 500 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -2.57%  this year through June 5:


FactSet

Through Friday, the benchmark index was down only 1% for 2020, despite the coronavirus outbreak, the unprecedented shutdown of major portions of the U.S. economy, and all the fear that led the index to be down 31% for 2020 through March 23.

The well-known hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said during a CNBC interview Monday that he was “humbled” by the stock market’s recovery, and had missed out on most of it. He said he had underestimated the effect of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to enhance liquidity and the power of investors’ enthusiasm for the reopening of the economy.

Now here’s a chart of continuous contract prices for West Texas crude oil this year through June 5:


FactSet

WTI is still down 35% this year, but you can see the continuous contract price went from $61.06 at the end of 2018, to as low as $6.50 (intraday) on April 21, to $39.55 Friday.

Mark Grant, the chief global strategist for fixed income at B. Riley FBR, wrote repeatedly in his “Out of the Box” email commentary that this year’s oil doldrums were a “blip” and that the low prices signaled opportunities for long-term investors.

On Monday, Grant wrote: “I continue to think that there are opportunities left in this space as many people and institutions have not fully warmed up to what is underway yet. “

Confusing percentages

The following table includes the 25 stocks among the S&P 500 that were down at least 60% in the first quarter. They are sorted by those declines, and you can see that all have shot up in the second quarter:

Company Ticker Price change - first quarter, 2020 Price change - second quarter through June 5 Price change - 2020 Price change - 2019
Apache Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite APA   -84% 284% -37% -3%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. /zigman2/quotes/204183397/composite NCLH   -81% 105% -62% 38%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. /zigman2/quotes/208854639/composite RCL   -76% 116% -48% 37%
Marathon Oil Corp. /zigman2/quotes/205031829/composite MRO   -76% 122% -46% -5%
Noble Energy Inc.   -76% 86% -55% 32%
Carnival Corp. /zigman2/quotes/202325446/composite CCL   -74% 63% -52% 3%
Devon Energy Corp. /zigman2/quotes/209479244/composite DVN   -73% 111% -44% 15%
Halliburton Co. /zigman2/quotes/210488727/composite HAL   -72% 112% -41% -8%
Occidental Petroleum Corp. /zigman2/quotes/207018272/composite OXY   -72% 80% -50% -33%
Diamondback Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201200230/composite FANG   -72% 99% -44% 0%
Kohl's Corp. /zigman2/quotes/210414114/composite KSS   -71% 82% -48% -23%
Oneok Inc. /zigman2/quotes/205201756/composite OKE   -71% 108% -40% 40%
Alliance Data Systems Corp. /zigman2/quotes/205162001/composite ADS   -70% 79% -46% -25%
TechnipFMC PLC /zigman2/quotes/207530935/composite FTI   -69% 42% -55% 9%
ViacomCBS Inc. Class B /zigman2/quotes/200340870/composite VIAC   -67% 77% -41% -4%
Schlumberger NV /zigman2/quotes/201012972/composite SLB   -66% 63% -45% 11%
DXC Technology Co. /zigman2/quotes/200279350/composite DXC   -65% 38% -52% -29%
MGM Resorts International /zigman2/quotes/209932643/composite MGM   -65% 84% -35% 37%
PVH Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208313660/composite PVH   -64% 67% -40% 13%
United Airlines Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/205037281/composite UAL   -64% 34% -52% 5%
Simon Property Group Inc. /zigman2/quotes/209746667/composite SPG   -63% 62% -41% -11%
Nordstrom Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203902116/composite JWN   -63% 47% -45% -12%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. /zigman2/quotes/209634297/composite MPC   -61% 76% -31% 2%
National Oilwell Varco Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208758290/composite NOV   -61% 53% -40% -3%
Gap Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206554267/composite GPS   -60% 75% -30% -31%
Source: FactSet

If you had decided to, and been able to, invest $1,000 a apiece in those 25 stocks at the close March 31, your value would have risen to $46,669 at the close June 5.

The stock market tends to overreact to major events. Nearly half the names on the list are energy companies, which suffered the double-whammy of the economic shutdown and the increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries while demand collapsed. That problem has been solved, for now.

In late March, the average investor would probably have told you to get your head examined if you said you were buying energy stocks. In hindsight, it didn’t take very long for oil prices to begin recovering.

The same can be said of the entire stock market. The crash from the record high Feb. 19 was easy to understand, with the shocking spread of COVID-19 and the quick shutdown of so much business. It was easy to lose all hope. But here we are, with hope (and Fed money) driving an equally astonishing market recovery.

So what is the confusing part? It’s that a high percentage increase in a short period doesn’t mean a stock really has “recovered.” Consider Apache Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite APA -4.58% : The stock is up 284% during the second quarter, but it’s still down 37% for 2020.

Read: This unusual income fund has a dividend yield of 6.5% and has beaten the S&P 500

/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
3,750.77
-98.85 -2.57%
Volume: 3.80B
Jan. 27, 2021 4:53p
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/zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 14.60
-0.70 -4.58%
Volume: 12.47M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.68%
Market Cap
$5.78 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.00M
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/zigman2/quotes/204183397/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 23.53
-0.13 -0.55%
Volume: 19.69M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$7.47 billion
Rev. per Employee
$179,510
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/zigman2/quotes/208854639/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 66.18
-0.32 -0.48%
Volume: 4.56M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:04p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$14.92 billion
Rev. per Employee
$128,228
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/zigman2/quotes/205031829/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 7.54
+0.07 +0.94%
Volume: 29.60M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.12%
Market Cap
$5.90 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.53M
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/zigman2/quotes/202325446/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 18.98
+0.26 +1.39%
Volume: 50.58M
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$17.53 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
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/zigman2/quotes/209479244/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 17.21
+0.36 +2.14%
Volume: 15.50M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.56%
Market Cap
$11.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.52M
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/zigman2/quotes/210488727/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 17.28
-0.92 -5.05%
Volume: 16.09M
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.04%
Market Cap
$16.09 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207018272/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 20.58
+0.20 +0.98%
Volume: 25.69M
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.19%
Market Cap
$18.98 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.30M
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/zigman2/quotes/201200230/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 56.59
-3.02 -5.07%
Volume: 4.01M
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.65%
Market Cap
$9.42 billion
Rev. per Employee
$5.57M
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/zigman2/quotes/210414114/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 47.65
+2.49 +5.51%
Volume: 9.06M
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N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$7.12 billion
Rev. per Employee
$163,721
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/zigman2/quotes/205201756/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 40.55
-1.57 -3.73%
Volume: 4.03M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
27.95
Dividend Yield
9.22%
Market Cap
$18.72 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.51M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/205162001/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 67.58
-1.02 -1.49%
Volume: 2.50M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
11.30
Dividend Yield
1.24%
Market Cap
$3.27 billion
Rev. per Employee
$656,624
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/207530935/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 11.31
+0.62 +5.80%
Volume: 19.79M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:02p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.15%
Market Cap
$4.80 billion
Rev. per Employee
$363,154
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/zigman2/quotes/200340870/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 56.00
+4.08 +7.86%
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Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
25.54
Dividend Yield
1.71%
Market Cap
$32.04 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.16M
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/zigman2/quotes/201012972/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 21.81
-0.93 -4.09%
Volume: 17.04M
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.29%
Market Cap
$31.65 billion
Rev. per Employee
$274,430
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200279350/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 28.47
-0.88 -3.00%
Volume: 2.84M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:04p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$7.47 billion
Rev. per Employee
$141,862
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/zigman2/quotes/209932643/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 28.36
-1.23 -4.16%
Volume: 10.02M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
10.13
Dividend Yield
0.04%
Market Cap
$14.62 billion
Rev. per Employee
$184,281
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/zigman2/quotes/208313660/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 85.11
-6.41 -7.00%
Volume: 1.55M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$6.51 billion
Rev. per Employee
$460,884
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/zigman2/quotes/205037281/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 40.91
-0.34 -0.82%
Volume: 15.28M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$12.86 billion
Rev. per Employee
N/A
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/zigman2/quotes/209746667/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 96.64
-2.41 -2.43%
Volume: 5.78M
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P/E Ratio
20.43
Dividend Yield
5.38%
Market Cap
$36.77 billion
Rev. per Employee
$1.26M
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/zigman2/quotes/203902116/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 39.25
-0.24 -0.61%
Volume: 9.08M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$6.23 billion
Rev. per Employee
$228,294
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/zigman2/quotes/209634297/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 43.94
-1.22 -2.70%
Volume: 8.83M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
5.28%
Market Cap
$29.38 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.03M
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208758290/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 12.22
-0.40 -3.17%
Volume: 5.61M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$4.90 billion
Rev. per Employee
$238,958
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/206554267/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 19.54
-2.28 -10.45%
Volume: 16.83M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:03p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$8.16 billion
Rev. per Employee
$127,000
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 14.60
-0.70 -4.58%
Volume: 12.47M
Jan. 27, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.68%
Market Cap
$5.78 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.00M
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Philip van Doorn covers various investment and industry topics. He has previously worked as a senior analyst at TheStreet.com. He also has experience in community banking and as a credit analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

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