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Nov. 11, 2016, 3:04 a.m. EST

Looks like gold may have been ‘Trumped’

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About Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt is author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition. A lawyer and accountant by training, he is also managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC, which provides financial markets analysis and consulting. His Elliott Wave analysis appears frequently on sites such as SeekingAlpha, where he is a certified contributor, and TheTechTrader.com with Harry Boxer.

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By Avi Gilburt

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Yes, I know. I was told by so many that a Trump presidency would see gold rocket to the moon. But, as I write this, it is now negative on the day. Does gold no longer like “The Donald”?

You see, the entire metals complex has been in a corrective decline since August. I still have no indications that this corrective decline has run its course.

Back on Oct. 9, I noted to the members in my trading room at Elliottwavetrader that from a risk/reward perspective, we must stop looking lower and begin to look higher in the complex. That now seems to have been the correct move. But based upon the action I have seen to date off that low, I am not sure that is the wise path to travel at the moment.

While we have the minimal number of "waves" in place to consider the correction complete at the lows in early October, the manner we have dropped into those lows suggests the downside is still not complete. Moreover, without a clear "impulsive" rally (Elliott Wave term of art meaning 5 wave structure) off that October low, it suggests that the rally has been purely corrective in nature, which includes the rally which struck the highs we hit the evening Trump won the election.

So, at least until I see something that suggests otherwise, I think the metals complex is likely setting up for a low below the one struck in early October. That "should" complete this correction which has been in process since August, and then set us up for a continuation rally, which will likely see the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF /zigman2/quotes/206399889/composite GDX -0.93%  in the 60.00-70.00 region, SPDR Gold Trust /zigman2/quotes/200593176/composite GLD -0.16%   back to its 2011 highs, and potentially even a bit higher, and silver back to the 30.00-40.00 region.

See chart illustrating the wave count on the GLD .

Disclosure: Gilbert owns gold.

US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 32.12
-0.30 -0.93%
Volume: 21.06M
Nov. 26, 2021 1:10p
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 166.85
-0.27 -0.16%
Volume: 9.61M
Nov. 26, 2021 1:10p

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