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Oct. 1, 2022, 10:02 a.m. EDT

Midterm elections: Republicans’ chances for taking control of Senate rebound to 46%, a level last seen about 8 weeks ago

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By Katie MarrinerVictor Reklaitis

The Republican Party’s chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections have been bouncing back, with  betting market PredictIt  putting them at 46% on Thursday — a level last seen on Aug. 7 and up from a low of 35% hit in late August.

The GOP’s Senate odds, even with the recent rebound, remain far below their high of 79% reached in April. But there is a clear recovery, as shown in the chart below, and some analysts think it’s because high U.S. inflation continues weigh on the Democratic Party’s prospects.

“Recent polls indicate a bit of a momentum fade for the Democrats, as voter anxiety over the economy and inflation exceeds concern over abortion,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note on Wednesday , referring to a focus among voters on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade .

“The biggest issue continues to be inflation; the late summer drop in gasoline prices /zigman2/quotes/210286597/delayed RB00 -0.14% has not persuaded voters that inflation has peaked,” Valliere also said.

PredictIt gives Republicans a 79% chance of taking control of the House as of Thursday, after showing a low of 72% in late August and a high of 92% in June. (Note that the betting market says the sum of all odds  can be higher than 100%, or $1 , especially when they have been changing rapidly, because they reflect most recent trades.)

The additional charts below show key Senate races to watch , as well as well as the performance of each party in a generic congressional ballot.

Now read:  If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

And see:   Political ad spending is breaking records: Here’s where the money’s going in critical Senate races

This is an updated version of a report first published on Sept. 28, 2022.

/zigman2/quotes/210286597/delayed
US : U.S.: Nymex
$ 2.34
-0.0032 -0.14%
Volume: 1,272
Dec. 2, 2022 5:10a
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