Investor Alert

Earnings Outlook Archives | Email alerts

Jan. 25, 2021, 8:08 a.m. EST

Starbucks earnings preview: COVID-19 stalls sales recovery, but spring is looking up

Watchlist Relevance

Want to see how this story relates to your watchlist?

Just add items to create a watchlist now:

  • X
    Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
  • X
    S&P 500 Index (SPX)

or Cancel Already have a watchlist? Log In

Tonya Garcia

Starbucks Corp. /zigman2/quotes/207508890/composite SBUX +0.30% has already given guidance for its first fiscal quarter and the full year, but analysts are still looking forward to the coffee company’s coming earnings announcement, scheduled for Jan. 26 after the closing bell, in order to gain visibility about the company’s COVID-19 recovery path.

Starbucks is guiding for first-quarter earnings per share in the range of 32 cents to 37 cents, and adjusted EPS of 50 cents to 55 cents. For fiscal 2021, the company is guiding for EPS in the range of $2.34 to $2.54, and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.70 to $2.90.

“Given the recent disclosure, we expect focus to be on any fiscal second quarter to-date trends, though we expect management to continue to point to a U.S. [comparable sales] recovery by the end of the current quarter, in part due to difficult January and February 2020 comparisons,” wrote RBC Capital Markets in a restaurants note published on Thursday.

RBC has an outperform rating on Starbucks shares.

Starbucks, like many other businesses, has been hit by surging COVID-19 numbers, driving investors to look further down the line for signs of recovery.

Read: Starbucks says cold beverages have driven more than $1 billion in sales over the last three years

And: U.S. suffers another 4,000 deaths in a single day as experts welcome Fauci’s return to White House podium

“While retrenching same-store sales in November and December is not unique to Starbucks, investors appear to be looking past the near-term challenges for nearly every concept to brighter days ahead in the spring of 2021,” wrote BTIG analysts led by Peter Saleh in a December note following the company’s investor day event.

“While we expect Starbucks to make a full recovery once the vaccine is widely available, we don’t see a same-store-sales catalyst for the next couple of months.”

BTIG rates Starbucks stock neutral.

One of things that could spark sales is the return of Starbucks’ “Happy Hour” event.

“The company recently suspended its Happy Hour promotion to protect workers in the current environment, but its reintroduction next quarter could prove to be a meaningful sales driver,” wrote Stifel analysts in a Dec. 16 note.

Stifel rates Starbucks shares buy with a $115 price target.

Starbucks has an average overweight stock rating among the 34 analysts polled by FactSet. Analysts have an average price target of $109.40 for Starbucks shares.

Here’s what to watch for during Starbucks’ earnings report:

Earnings: The FactSet consensus is for EPS of 55 cents, down from 79 cents last year.

Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts, hedge-fund managers, executives, academics and others, is forecasting EPS of 59 cents.

Starbucks has beat the FactSet EPS consensus in five of the last six quarters.

Revenue: The FactSet consensus calls for revenue of $6.9 billion, down from $7.1 billion last year. Estimize forecasts revenue of $6.96 billion.

Stock price: Starbucks shares have gained 12.1% over the last year, and 16% over the past three months.

The benchmark S&P 500 index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +1.95% is up 15.7% over the past year.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 105.20
+0.31 +0.30%
Volume: 5.56M
March 5, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
Dividend Yield
Market Cap
$123.85 billion
Rev. per Employee
+73.47 +1.95%
Volume: 3.33B
March 5, 2021 5:44p
1 2
This Story has 0 Comments
Be the first to comment
More News In

Story Conversation

Commenting FAQs »

Partner Center

Link to MarketWatch's Slice.