By Steve Goldstein
Investors love looking at esoteric indicators for clues on how the economy is performing, and therefore how stocks, bonds and other assets will trade.
How about looking at carbon dioxide emissions? There may be a political agreement to reduce emissions but that’s an effort phased in over many years. Any sudden changes are more likely to be the impact of changing patterns of economic activity rather than cleaner output.
So we take you to Mauna Loa, home to the world’s second largest volcano and also the site of a remote observatory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, set up in 1957.
Over to the blog Political Calculations , which tracks the 12-month average of the year-over-year change in parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
“In just a month, the global economy has gone from showing signs of stalling growth to providing strong evidence the Earth’s economy has resumed shrinking,” says the blog.
It gives two reasons — the sanctions imposed on Russia, which are disrupting flows of energy to Europe; and China’s use of lockdowns to combat the spread of COVID-19.
The news from the volcano dovetails with more official takes on economics from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund , as both institutions reduced estimates of global growth, though neither forecast a recession. Several Wall Street banks have reduced their growth forecasts for China due to the strict lockdowns, while Fannie Mae, the U.S. housing giant, forecasts the U.S. economy will enter recession next year due to expectations of a series of Federal Reserve rate increases.
The buzz
Netflix /zigman2/quotes/202353025/composite NFLX -1.52% shares were again pounded after the latest earnings report, diving 27% in premarket trade after losing 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter and forecasting a two million drop in the second quarter . The Netflix news also pressured streaming hardware maker Roku /zigman2/quotes/205087179/composite ROKU -6.58% , as well as rival streamers Paramount Global /zigman2/quotes/200340870/composite PARA -2.06% and Walt Disney /zigman2/quotes/203410047/composite DIS -0.90% .
In a since-deleted tweet , fund manager Michael Burry said the competition is coming for Netflix just as it’s coming for Tesla. Tesla /zigman2/quotes/203558040/composite TSLA -2.44% CEO Elon Musk tweeted the “woke mind virus is making Netflix unwatchable.”
Speaking of Musk, a cryptic message from him suggested he might launch a tender offer for Twitter. Tesla /zigman2/quotes/203558040/composite TSLA -2.44% reports results after the close of trade.
Cloud service and consulting provider IBM /zigman2/quotes/203856914/composite IBM -1.14% beat earnings estimates and said it would hit the high end of its revenue growth forecast this year. Microchip equipment maker ASML /zigman2/quotes/210293876/composite ASML -5.52% guided for sales growth in the second quarter below analyst estimates, with gross margin only slightly above first-quarter levels.
French President Emmanuel Macron faces far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in a televised debate Wednesday, after recent polls showed a widening of his lead.
The U.S. economics calendar features existing home sales data, speeches from three Federal Reserve presidents and the release of the Beige Book of economic anecdotes.
The markets
U.S. stock futures /zigman2/quotes/209948968/delayed ES00 -0.34% /zigman2/quotes/210219788/delayed NQ00 -1.01% were steady after Tuesday’s surge .
The yield on the 10-year Treasury /zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y -1.97% slipped to 2.87%.
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