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July 16, 2015, 1:56 p.m. EDT

The U.S. dollar has been a better trade than gold

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About Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt is author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition. A lawyer and accountant by training, he is also managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC, which provides financial markets analysis and consulting. His Elliott Wave analysis appears frequently on sites such as SeekingAlpha, where he is a certified contributor, and TheTechTrader.com with Harry Boxer.

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By Avi Gilburt

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Would you be surprised if I told you that the dollar has been in an uptrend since 2008? In fact, from 2008-2015, the dollar has risen over 40%. Yes, that number is correct. Even though some have been prognosticating the death of the U.S. dollar, the dollar does not seem to have been listening.

What is even more surprising is that during that exact same period of time of the dollar's rise, gold has netted only 10.5%. If you want to compare it to silver, silver has lost 35% during the same period of time.

When you step back and look at the facts, you have to recognize that the dollar has been a better net trade since 2008, than those who have held onto metals since that time.

In 2011, based upon our market-sentiment analysis, I was calling for a long-term rally in the U.S. dollar , and the dollar has rallied 34% since my long-term call. I remain bullish.

Now, I know that all of those in the "death to the dollar" camp will be posting comments about how wrong I am. But if one keep’s an open mind, they would see all I have done is point out simple facts about what the dollar and the precious metals have done since the dollar struck its bottom in 2008. And it is still not time for the dollar to top out. In fact, in my opinion, the dollar still has more room to rally.

So, maybe it's time investors recognize the truth before us in these two markets. Because of the many misconceptions out there, I am hoping to write more columns in the future about the many worldwide currencies we have been tracking.

For now, I will leave you with my expectation for the U.S. Dollar Index /zigman2/quotes/210598269/delayed DXY -0.04%  to head up to the 101.50-103.00 region next, with the potential to even rise as high as the 120.00 region, before we can even consider any form of multi-year top being seen.

See chart illustrating the wave count on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

US : U.S.: ICE Futures U.S.
-0.04 -0.04%
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Jan. 28, 2022 4:35p

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