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Philip van Doorn

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Oct. 4, 2018, 8:47 a.m. EDT

These medium-sized U.S. companies are expected to show the fastest sales growth

Analysts expect the party to continue into 2019 for many of them

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By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch


Plantronics
Analysts expect audio-communications-equipment maker Plantronics to increase sales by 92% in 2018.

(This is the second in a three-part series listing the small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap companies included in the S&amp;P 1500 Composite Index that are expected to show the fastest sales growth in 2018. <CROSSREF GUID="{689E597C-C64F-11E8-AA3F-293A0D48473A}" DOCTYPEID="" FILE-NAME="" ENCODING-DATE="">Part one focused on small-cap companies</CROSSREF>.)

“Earnings beat” season begins in a week, when you can expect to see headlines saying this or that company has reported profits that were better than analysts had expected. There will be a few dire headlines, of course, about companies “missing” estimates.

The “beat rate” generally runs about 70%, in part because companies underestimate their expected profits in the “guidance” they provide to investors. Sell-side analysts do their part, often lowering estimates to set up the “beats.” But as we near third-quarter earnings season, analysts aren’t lowering estimates as often as usual.

Profits in the third quarter were buoyed by President Trump’s tax cuts that went into effect during the first quarter. The accelerating economic expansion, along with a tremendous amount of stock buybacks, will also help boost earnings per share (EPS).

If you are looking for companies that are on a tear, sales numbers are often your best indication because any company’s profit numbers can be distorted by accounting adjustments or other one-time events.

Here’s a summary of sales and earnings-per-share expectations for the three indexes that make up the S&P 1500 Composite Index, based on consensus estimates among analysts:

Index Ticker Estimated increase in sales - third quarter Estimated increase in sales - 2018 Estimated increase in EPS - third quarter Estimated increase in EPS - 2018 Total return - 2018 through Oct. 2
S&P Small-Cap 600 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599868/delayed SML 8.6% 8.8% 23.0% 28.0% 11.7%
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599897/delayed MID 11.5% 11.5% 25.4% 23.8% 6.3%
S&P 500 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX 9.1% 8.8% 24.1% 23.4% 10.9%
Source: FactSet

We listed the 20 companies in the S&P Small-Cap 600 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599868/delayed SML -0.53% expected to achieve the largest increases in sales for 2018 in part one of this series.

Looking at this year’s total returns, small-cap stocks have been the best performers. They are also expected to post the largest increase in earnings per share, probably because smaller companies tend to have fewer shelters from federal income taxes than large ones — they will receive a bigger windfall from the tax cuts, in other words.

The large-cap S&P 500 Index has performed nearly as well as the small-cap index, but the S&P Mid-Cap 400 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599897/delayed MID -0.10%  has been the worst performer. Despite that lack of love from investors, the mid-cap companies are expected to record the largest increases in sales among the three groups this year.

Expected mid-cap sales winners

Here are the 20 S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index companies expected to achieve the highest increases in sales for 2018:

Company Ticker Industry Est. sales - 2017 Est. sales - 2018 Est. sales - 2019 Sales increase - 2017 Expected sales increase - 2018 Expected sales increase - 2019
McDermott International Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206755144/composite MDR Oilfield Services/Equipment $2,985 $7,339 $9,904 13% 146% 35%
Syneos Health Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/207981284/composite SYNH Health Industry Services $1,869 $4,452 $4,779 66% 138% 7%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/206974312/composite KNX Trucking $2,431 $5,379 $5,716 117% 121% 6%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. /zigman2/quotes/201364537/composite CHK Oil and Gas Production $4,569 $9,267 $8,724 9% 103% -6%
Plantronics Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206955846/composite PLT Telecommunications Equipment $857 $1,647 $2,078 -2% 92% 26%
Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204556670/composite JLL Real Estate Development $7,932 $14,784 $14,227 17% 86% -4%
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200002947/composite VAC Other Consumer Services $1,953 $3,619 $4,622 8% 85% 28%
Sterling Bancorp /zigman2/quotes/206493117/composite STL Regional Banks $649 $1,099 $1,165 40% 69% 6%
Exelixis Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204247745/composite EXEL Biotechnology $453 $750 $901 136% 65% 20%
Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206860861/composite SBRA Real Estate Investment Trusts $395 $651 $658 55% 65% 1%
Callon Petroleum Co. /zigman2/quotes/201917664/composite CPE Oil and Gas Production $360 $576 $813 82% 60% 41%
Energen Corp. Oil and Gas Production $958 $1,458 $1,880 59% 52% 29%
Matador Resources Co. /zigman2/quotes/204387276/composite MTDR Oil and Gas Production $540 $817 $961 82% 51% 18%
PotlatchDeltic Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208148498/composite PCH Real Estate Investment Trusts $679 $1,016 $1,066 13% 50% 5%
PRA Health Sciences Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202119094/composite PRAH Miscellaneous Commercial Services $1,948 $2,911 $3,225 25% 49% 11%
WPX Energy Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/204372171/composite WPX Oil and Gas Production $1,330 $1,921 $2,624 48% 44% 37%
Littelfuse Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208753742/composite LFUS Electrical Products $1,222 $1,739 $1,842 16% 42% 6%
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204120302/composite PTEN Contract Drilling $2,354 $3,325 $3,485 157% 41% 5%
Inogen Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite INGN Medical Specialties $249 $350 $429 23% 40% 23%
Oasis Petroleum Inc. /zigman2/quotes/207530975/composite OAS Oil and Gas Production $1,241 $1,725 $2,073 77% 39% 20%
Source: FactSet

You can click on the tickers for more information, including news, price ratios, earnings estimates and other financials. The 2017 sales numbers are adjusted by sell-side analysts for subsequent accounting changes and restatements.

The presence of eight oil producers, drillers or service companies on the list is no surprise, as the price of West Texas Crude oil CL1 0.00%  has risen 61% over the past 12 months. A significant decline in break-even costs for domestic share oil producers means that if the price of oil merely holds from here, significant further increases in sales (and profits) are expected for many (but not all) over the next few years.

Beyond the oil companies, there is a story behind each tremendous increase in expected sales, and it is important to do your own research to understand the numbers and form your own opinion about the long-term strategy of any company that may interest you as a possible investment.

For example, Syneos Health /zigman2/quotes/207981284/composite SYNH -0.61% , which provides services to biotech companies and medical-device makers going through product trials, is expected to increase sales by 138% this year. The company was formerly known as INC Research and was renamed Syneos when it acquired inVentive Health in August 2017. On an adjusted “combined company” basis, Syneos’ sales during the first half of 2018 actually declined slightly from a year earlier, to $1.56 billion.

Looking ahead, analysts are expecting sales growth of 7% for Syneos in 2019. Leaving aside the oil companies, there are five companies expected to increase sales by double digits next year, including Plantronics /zigman2/quotes/206955846/composite PLT -0.90% , Marriott Vacations Worldwide /zigman2/quotes/200002947/composite VAC -0.50% , Exelixis /zigman2/quotes/204247745/composite EXEL -3.41% , PRA Health Sciences /zigman2/quotes/202119094/composite PRAH -0.52%  and Inogen /zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite INGN -0.83% .

Ratings and price targets

Here are total returns for the mid-cap group, along with summaries of analysts’ ratings and price targets:

Company Ticker Total return - 2018 through Oct. 2 Share 'buy' ratings Share neutral ratings Share 'sell' ratings Closing price - Oct. 2 Consensus price target Implied 12-month upside potential
McDermott International Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206755144/composite MDR   -12% 37% 63% 0% $17.38 $26.00 50%
Syneos Health Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/207981284/composite SYNH 15% 60% 40% 0% $50.28 $57.83 15%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/206974312/composite KNX -24% 71% 29% 0% $33.19 $44.65 35%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. /zigman2/quotes/201364537/composite CHK 14% 4% 64% 32% $4.52 $4.61 2%
Plantronics Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206955846/composite PLT 15% 75% 25% 0% $57.44 $85.50 49%
Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204556670/composite JLL -3% 55% 45% 0% $144.11 $178.00 24%
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200002947/composite VAC -19% 89% 11% 0% $108.29 $150.44 39%
Sterling Bancorp /zigman2/quotes/206493117/composite STL -11% 91% 9% 0% $21.70 $30.45 40%
Exelixis Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204247745/composite EXEL -41% 77% 15% 8% $17.94 $29.55 65%
Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206860861/composite SBRA 29% 33% 67% 0% $22.50 $23.68 5%
Callon Petroleum Co. /zigman2/quotes/201917664/composite CPE 2% 81% 19% 0% $12.37 $17.33 40%
Energen Corp. 52% 33% 67% 0% $87.36 $86.11 -1%
Matador Resources Co. /zigman2/quotes/204387276/composite MTDR 6% 78% 22% 0% $33.11 $40.05 21%
PotlatchDeltic Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208148498/composite PCH -11% 29% 71% 0% $40.21 $51.71 29%
PRA Health Sciences Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202119094/composite PRAH 20% 77% 15% 8% $109.10 $110.73 1%
WPX Energy Inc. Class A /zigman2/quotes/204372171/composite WPX 43% 93% 4% 3% $20.08 $25.17 25%
Littelfuse Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208753742/composite LFUS -1% 25% 75% 0% $193.90 $229.25 18%
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204120302/composite PTEN -23% 76% 20% 4% $17.69 $21.46 21%
Inogen Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite INGN 99% 75% 25% 0% $237.15 $260.67 10%
Oasis Petroleum Inc. /zigman2/quotes/207530975/composite OAS 68% 52% 41% 7% $14.13 $15.35 9%
Source: FactSet

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950.37
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$ 36.54
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$ 1.29
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$ 37.49
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$ 143.59
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$ 16.42
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$ 23.63
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$ 42.22
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$ 98.49
-0.51 -0.52%
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N/A
Market Cap
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$ 9.54
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$ 2.90
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$933.43 million
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$ 0.00
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Volume:
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 55.03
-0.34 -0.61%
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P/E Ratio
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$ 37.49
-0.34 -0.90%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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$ 98.49
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P/E Ratio
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$ 48.98
-0.41 -0.83%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
$1.07 billion
Rev. per Employee
$325,852
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$ 2.35
-0.13 -5.24%
Volume: 25.23M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$427.06 million
Rev. per Employee
N/A
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 55.03
-0.34 -0.61%
Volume: 267,261
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
$5.69 billion
Rev. per Employee
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
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Rev. per Employee
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 37.49
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P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
1.60%
Market Cap
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Rev. per Employee
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 143.59
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
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Rev. per Employee
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 108.63
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.66%
Market Cap
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Rev. per Employee
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$ 20.21
+0.08 +0.40%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.39%
Market Cap
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Rev. per Employee
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 16.42
-0.58 -3.41%
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Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
$4.97 billion
Rev. per Employee
$2.30M
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 23.63
+0.21 +0.90%
Volume: 1.58M
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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$4.48 billion
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-1.05 -7.79%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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$ 42.22
+0.70 +1.69%
Volume: 240,346
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
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Market Cap
$2.84 billion
Rev. per Employee
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/zigman2/quotes/202119094/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 98.49
-0.51 -0.52%
Volume: 383,862
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
41.54
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$6.18 billion
Rev. per Employee
$175,117
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/zigman2/quotes/204372171/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 9.54
-0.28 -2.85%
Volume: 6.08M
Oct. 18, 2019 6:30p
P/E Ratio
6.67
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$4.03 billion
Rev. per Employee
$3.72M
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/zigman2/quotes/208753742/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 187.36
-0.17 -0.09%
Volume: 92,098
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
28.29
Dividend Yield
1.02%
Market Cap
$4.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$139,713
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/zigman2/quotes/204120302/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 7.83
+0.05 +0.64%
Volume: 6.05M
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
2.04%
Market Cap
$1.59 billion
Rev. per Employee
$415,875
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/zigman2/quotes/208161856/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 48.98
-0.41 -0.83%
Volume: 165,919
Oct. 18, 2019 4:00p
P/E Ratio
26.34
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$1.07 billion
Rev. per Employee
$325,852
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/zigman2/quotes/207530975/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 2.90
-0.14 -4.61%
Volume: 7.84M
Oct. 18, 2019 6:30p
P/E Ratio
4.32
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$933.43 million
Rev. per Employee
$3.19M
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Philip van Doorn covers various investment and industry topics. He has previously worked as a senior analyst at TheStreet.com. He also has experience in community banking and as a credit analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

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