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Feb. 27, 2021, 11:54 a.m. EST

This investment mix beats the S&P 500 — by a mile

The ultimate buy-and-hold portfolio for 2021

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By Paul A. Merriman, MarketWatch


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This article is the core of my best advice for long-term investors. If you want the very best equity portfolio, you’re about to learn what it is and how to put it together.

This article has three parts. The first is what might be called an “executive summary” of key points. The second outlines the step-by-step process of creating my recommended portfolio. The third digs deeper into a few related topics.

This is one of a series of articles I’ve written and updated annually for many years. Together, they outline a lifetime wealth accumulation strategy for do-it-yourself investors.

The other articles will tackle how to accumulate investment savings, how much to hold in bonds, and how to plan retirement withdrawals.

Part one

“Ultimate” isn’t a term to toss around lightly. But in the case of the ultimate buy-and-hold strategy, it fits. I believe this is the absolute best way for most investors to achieve long-term growth in the stock markets.

This strategy is based on the best academic research I can find — and it is the basis of most of my own investments.

Here are some key takeaways:

Because nobody can know the future of investment returns, massive diversification gives investors the highest probability for long-term success.

Most investors rely almost exclusively on the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +0.93% . But by adding equal portions of nine other equity asset classes, long-term investors can double or even triple their returns.

The additional return comes primarily from taking advantage of long-term favorable returns of value stocks and small-cap stocks. Taking this step involves only minimal additional risk.

The ultimate buy-and-hold portfolio works best for investors who don’t want or try to predict the future, time the market’s inevitable swings or pick individual stocks.

By investing in passively managed index funds or exchange-traded funds, this strategy offers investors a convenient, low-cost way to own thousands of stocks.

Read: Will Social Security still be there if I wait to claim it?

Part two

This “ultimate” all-equity portfolio automatically takes advantage of stock-market opportunities wherever they are.

It’s best to roll this out in steps so you can see how it goes together. To help you follow along, here’s a table showing the components.

The base “ingredient” in this portfolio is the S&P 500, which is a good investment by itself. For the past 51 calendar years, from 1970 through 2020, the S&P 500 compounded at 10.7%. An initial investment of $100,000 in 1970 would have grown to nearly $18 million by the end of 2020. Keep that figure in mind as a benchmark to see the results of the diversification I’m about to describe.

For the sake of our discussion, think of the S&P 500 index as Portfolio 1 .

The next step involves shifting 10% of your portfolio from the S&P 500 to large-cap value stocks, which are regarded as relatively underpriced (hence the term value).

This results in Portfolio 2 , which is still 90% in the S&P 500. Assuming annual rebalancing (an assumption that applies throughout this discussion), the 51-year compound return rises from 10.7% to 10.9%. That would turn $100,000 investment in 1970 into $19.4 million.

/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
4,173.42
+38.48 +0.93%
Volume: 2.10B
April 21, 2021 5:13p
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