By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch
It’s always good to learn from a “mistake,” especially if you are running a bond ratings firm. It’s also, it seems, never too early to start an argument about the 2020 elections.
Donald Trump’s election in 2016 surprised many, including the people at Moody’s /zigman2/quotes/202808835/composite MCO +0.10% , whose data analysis models had correctly predicted the outcomes of all previous elections since 1980.
So Moody’s analyzed its 2016 miss, changed its methods and backtested three data models that would have predicted President Trumps’ victory, as well as all other presidential election outcomes back to 1980. MarketWatch readers left nearly 1,200 comments and you can join the conversation.
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