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Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals

  • Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals 3:52
11:08 a.m. Nov. 20, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield hits close to three-week low as trade deal hopes wane Fed’s Brainard sees “above-trend” economic growth for next 18 monthsU.S. Treasury yields fall Wednesday after news reports suggest a phase one trade deal between Washington and Beijing may not be completed this year, spurring inflows into government paper.
11:16 a.m. Nov. 19, 2019 - By Clive McKeef
Nasdaq closes at new high; Dow, S&P retreat from records on earnings and doubts about China trade deal Home Depot shares closed lower on revenue miss, poor outlook U.S. stocks slipped back from record highs on Wednesday on disappointing earnings results and doubts about a U.S. - China trade deal
10:06 a.m. Nov. 19, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
How can stocks rally when corporate profits are flat? Thank the bond market, analyst says Stock valuations are skyrocketing as bond yields fallInvestors do not often get to enjoy a halving of the long-term cost of capital without a more significant decline in corporate earnings
4:18 a.m. Nov. 19, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Trump meets with Fed boss Powell to talk economy after months of tension Fed says Powell gives no hints or promises about interest ratesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump at his request on Monday to discuss the economy, but the central bank said the Powell gave no hints or promises about what it will do next.
1:33 a.m. Nov. 19, 2019 - By Ron Temple
Stocks and bonds appear to be sending different messages — here’s why that’s not the case Investors are assuming that the Fed will ensure the economy doesn’t fall into a recession Investors are assuming that the Fed will ensure the economy doesn’t fall into a recession.
11:15 a.m. Nov. 18, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields slump from session highs as earlier trade optimism dissipates 10-year Treasury yield lowest in 2½ weeksU.S. Treasury yields are falling as investors juggle conflicting reports on Monday about the state of trade talks and the prospects for a phase one deal.
5:12 a.m. Nov. 18, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
It’s great the stock market is setting records, but it’s not because the economy is great Consumer spending, business production slow ahead of holidaysStocks on Wall Street have soared to fresh record highs, but it’s not because the economy is flashing a big thumbs-up sign. Far from it.
5:14 a.m. Nov. 17, 2019 - By Clive McKeef
U.S. stock market at record but farm bankruptcies at highest since 2011 Squeeze on farmers underscores the toll the trade war has taken on a critical Trump constituency ahead of the 2020 electionsWhile the U.S. stock market is soaring to new records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 28,000 on Friday, farmers are having trouble paying their bills in the heart of America’s agricultural sector.
8:29 a.m. Nov. 16, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. budget deficit jumps 34% in October, gap set to top $1 trillion in 2020 U.S. budget deficit rises to $134.5 billion in first month of fiscal 2020The federal government’s budget deficit in October rose 34% from a year earlier to $134.5 billion, putting the U.S. on course to top the $1 trillion mark in fiscal 2020 for the first time in eight years.
11:44 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
U.S. stocks climb to fresh records on revived hope for U.S. - China trade deal Dow hits 28,000 for first time U.S. stocks closed at fresh record highs on Friday on revived hopes for a U.S. - China trade deal despite mixed economic data.
11:36 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
10-year, 30-year Treasury yield logs biggest weekly drop in one and a half monthsU.S. Treasury yields rise Friday, trimming their week long decline, after an official from the White House suggested negotiations for the phase one trade deal was nearing an end.
10:29 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Modern Monetary Theory carries ‘grain of truth’ and that’s why it's dangerous, says former Treasury official Nathan Sheets says the U.S. can run higher budget deficits than thoughtNathan Sheets, PGIM’s chief economist, says the U.S. could run larger deficits, but it was unclear when its fiscal profligacy come back to bite the Treasury market.
9:02 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Greg Robb
Fed’s Brainard calls for ‘heightened vigilance’ on financial stability Comment comes as central bank releases latest report on financial system vulnerabilitiesFed Governor Lael Brainard on Friday called for ‘heightened vigilance’ of the financial sector, as the central bank released its latest financial stability report.
6:17 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Import prices fall again in October. No inflation entering the U.S. from abroad U.S. import prices have declined 3% in the past 12 monthsThe cost of goods imported into the U.S. fell sharply in October, reflecting declines in a broad array of goods such as petroleum, food, drinks and consumer electronics entering from China. The import price index sank 0.5% last month.
6:10 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Greg Robb
NY Empire State factory index sluggish for sixth straight month in November Empire State index little changed at 2.9 from 4.0 in OctoberFactory activity in the New York region was sluggish for the sixth straight month, according to the Empire State manufacturing survey released by the New York Fed on Friday.
5:43 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Retail sales rebound, but consumers tighten the reins before the holiday season U.S. retail sales climb 0.3% in October after September declineSales at gas stations, car dealers and internet stores such as Amazon rose in October, but most other retailers posted weak results just before the start of the holiday shopping season. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month.
5:06 a.m. Nov. 15, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. business inventories flat in September, reflect weakening trendWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business inventories in the U.S. were flat in September following a decline in August, the Commerce Department said Friday. Sales fell 0.2% in the month. The ratio of inventories to sales, meanwhile, was unchanged at 1.40. That's how many months it would take to sell all the inventory on hand. One year ago, the inventory-to-sales ratio was lower at 1.36. Flat or declining inventories are neutral or subtract from gross domestic product and usually are a sign of a weaker economy. The level of inventories in August was revised down slightly to show a 0.1% decline.
11:15 a.m. Nov. 14, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields extend slide as investors confront renewed trade and economic concerns Doubt around a U.S.-China trade deal have spurred fresh bond-buying this weekU.S. Treasury yields slip Thursday as investors eye weakening economic data in Asia, along with geopolitical jitters and uncertainty around a phase one trade deal.
5:08 a.m. Nov. 14, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. jobless claims jump to nearly 5-month high of 225,000 Spike in applications for jobless benefits might not be long lasting The number of people who applied for jobless benefits last week shot up to a nearly five-month high, but the surprising spike likely stemmed from seasonal quirks just ahead of the holiday season instead of a pronounced increase in layoffs. Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 225,000.
5:02 a.m. Nov. 14, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. wholesale prices get gasoline bump in October, PPI shows, but inflation still tame Producer price index rises 0.4% mostly due to higher cost of gas The wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services posted the sharpest increase in October in six months, but aside from higher gas prices, there was little inflation to be found. The producer price index rose 0.4% last month.
11:22 a.m. Nov. 13, 2019 - By Clive McKeef
Dow and S&P500 close at new records as five week rally rolls on Hopes for U.S. China trade deal, Fed policy and government spending drive rallyThe Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P500 index both closed at new records Wednesday, helped by a jump in Disney’s stock price, as a five week rally rolled on.
11:15 a.m. Nov. 13, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield slips below key 1.90% level as trade jitters spark bond rally WSJ reports that trade deal hits snag over farm purchasesU.S. Treasury yields pull back on Wednesday as uncertainty on how a phase one trade deal will shape up drives investors to take shelter in government paper.
9:38 a.m. Nov. 13, 2019 - By Greg Robb
Fed’s Powell says interest rates will be on hold absent a material deterioration in economy Central bank chief says baseline outlook for economy ‘remains favorable’ but there are risksFed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that interest rates are on hold absent a material deterioration of the economy.
8:48 a.m. Nov. 13, 2019 - By Mark Hulbert
By this measure, Americans are not addicted to debt and U.S. stocks should do fine Growth rate of debt, not the total amount, matters most to an economy’s strengthGrowth rate of debt, not the total amount, matters most to an economy’s strength, writes Mark Hulbert.
2:52 a.m. Nov. 13, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Here’s why inflation no longer drives the bond-market U.S. consumer price index due on WednesdayDon’t expect the inflation bugaboo to scare away the bond-market bulls, say some market participants
11:36 a.m. Nov. 12, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields end flat after Trump rehashes Fed spat in speech, but offers few details on China trade talks 10-year Treasury yield stands near three-month highU.S. Treasury yields ended mostly flat Tuesday after a speech by President Donald Trump in New York rehashed his disapproval of the Federal Reserve’s measured approach to interest rate cuts, but disappointed in terms of offering concrete details on the state of trade discussions
11:21 a.m. Nov. 12, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
Nasdaq ekes out record as investors look past Trump speech Dean Foods files for chapter 11 bankruptcyU.S. stocks mostly ended higher on Tuesday as President Donald Trump suggests a trade deal could happen soon but did not offer much clarity on the possibility of a tariff rollback as part of the agreement.
10:57 a.m. Nov. 12, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Trump’s agenda may be a double-edged sword for the U.S. and world economies President’s economic strategy has both helped - and hurt - growth Donald Trump on Tuesday emphasized the successes of his economic agenda in speech in New York, that provided few insights on the status of U.S. - China trade talks, but the president’s approach has proven to be a double-edged sword, some analysts say.
6:28 a.m. Nov. 12, 2019 - By Andrea Riquier
FDIC Chairman on repo market, LIBOR, and farm loans One big concern: banks are still writing loans pegged to the LIBOR benchmark that will soon be retiredThe head of the banking regulator sat down with MarketWatch for a talk about the biggest issues in the banking world now.
4:00 a.m. Nov. 9, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
U.S. Treasury’s 10-year yield surge to three month highs may be good news for the stock market Fed cutting interest rates this year also supports equities despite long term yield rise The surge in the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield to three month highs in the past week could be giving a thumbs up to equity investors despite the implied rise in the cost of capital from a higher yield curve.
11:28 a.m. Nov. 8, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield sees biggest weekly jump in around a monthU.S. Treasury yields were mostly steady on Friday, capping a weeklong surge, after signs of progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal pushed long-term government rates to multimonth highs this week.
11:18 a.m. Nov. 8, 2019 - By William Watts
How the Fed’s ‘quasi-QE’ helped turn a prominent stock-market bear bullish on cyclicals — for now Cyclical stocks poised to outperform over next 6 months: Stifel’s BannisterStifel’s Barry Bannister, who called last year’s fourth-quarter equities selloff, tells MarketWatch in an interview why he’s turned positive on the market — for now — and looks for cyclical stocks to rally over the next six months.
6:48 a.m. Nov. 8, 2019 - By Rachel Koning Beals
Fed can no longer ignore potential economic 'shocks' of climate change: BrainardClimate change is just the kind of "shock" to the economy that the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said Friday. Not only are there short-term natural disasters like the wild fires in California to consider, there are potential longer-term implications as well, she said. "To the extent that climate change and the associated policy responses affect productivity and long-run economic growth, there may be implications for the long-run neutral level of the real interest rate, which is a key consideration in monetary policy," Brainard said, at a first-of-its-kind Fed summit to focus on the economic and policy affects of climate change, hosted by the San Francisco Fed. Brainard said the Fed is monitoring how climate change effects the banking system's operations, the impact of climate policies on the energy sector and how weather affects the economy.
4:49 a.m. Nov. 8, 2019 - By Steve Goldstein
The economic cycle isn’t late stage, but the market cycle may be, UBS says The market cycle looks stretched The good news, according to UBS strategists, is the economy still has room to grow. The bad news is, the same doesn’t hold true for markets.
12:38 p.m. Nov. 7, 2019 - By Greg Robb
U.S. September consumer credit grows at slowest rate in 15 months Consumers pull back on credit-card use for second straight monthU.S. consumer borrowing rose in September at the slowest rate in fifteen months, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.
9:41 a.m. Nov. 7, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield on track for biggest one-day surge since Trump election The 10-year yield hit a three-month high on ThursdayAfter months of staying skeptical on a U.S - China trade relations, traders of long-term government bonds succumb to the optimism about a deal .
3:41 a.m. Nov. 7, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. jobless claims fall to one-month low of 211,000 — labor market stays strong There’s no sign of rising layoffs even as the U.S. economy slowsThe number of people who applied for U.S. unemployments benefits in early November fell to the lowest level in a month and clung near a half-century low, reflecting the resilience of the strongest labor market in decades. Initial jobless claims declined by 8,000 to 211,000.
1:24 a.m. Nov. 7, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Bond traders take crack at frustrating bet on steeper yield curve for umpteenth time Wall Street bond market analysts are showing renewed confidence in yield curve steepener tradesA growing cohort of rates strategists say easing uncertainty around the global economy could finally clear the way for the gap between short-term and long-term bond yields to widen.
11:10 a.m. Nov. 6, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields fall after reports say U.S.-China trade meeting postponed Fed’s Evans and Williams say no further interest rate cuts needed for nowU.S. Treasury yields fall Tuesday after reports say that a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could be delayed until December.
5:38 a.m. Nov. 6, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. productivity falls for the first time since 2015. Another victim of China trade war? U.S. productivity declines 0.3% in the third quarterThe productivity of American workers fell in the third quarter for the first time in almost four years, reflecting a cutback in production as the U.S. economy slowed toward the end of summer. Productivity declined 0.3%.
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