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Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals

  • Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals Jeffrey Gundlach on How to Read the Economy's Mixed Signals 3:52
8:52 a.m. Sept. 19, 2019 - By Carmen M. Reinhart
Powell’s dilemma: Easing offsets trade uncertainty, but invites more of the same from Trump To Trump’s dismay, the Fed won’t join global race to the bottom Probably to Jerome Powell’s deep and never-to-be-expressed frustration, the Fed is setting monetary policy in a way that increases the likelihood that Donald Trump will be re-elected next year.
8:08 a.m. Sept. 19, 2019 - By Rex Nutting
In a time of Trump, the Fed doesn’t know what’s going to happen next Powell declares forward guidance deadFed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t know the answer, he knows he doesn’t know, and he knows you know he doesn’t know. So quit asking.
6:20 a.m. Sept. 19, 2019 - By Greg Robb
U.S. leading economic indicator index flat in August, trends point to continued but slow growthThe leading economic index was flat in August after a big gain in the prior month, the Conference Board said Thursday. The recent performance of the index is consistent with "a slow but still expanding economy," said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director for economic research at the Conference Board. Strength in housing permits and credit growth offset weakness from manufacturing.
4:45 a.m. Sept. 19, 2019 - By Mark DeCambre
Fed completes 3rd straight repo auction to avoid short-term rate surgeThe New York Federal Reserve Thursday morning completed its third repurchasing operation, or repos, in as many days to stem spikes in crucial overnight funding market for financial institutions. The U.S. central bank carried out $75 billion of repos, with the Street submitting bids for $83.875 billion, sources said, providing liquidity for Wall Street dealers by temporarily buying securities. Earlier this week, a surge in the repurchasing rate, used by hedge funds and banks to fund their trading operations, pushed the fed-funds rate close to the top of its targeted range. The incident has stirred worries that the central bank is at risk of losing its grip over its benchmark interest rate. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference that the central bank is likely to execute similar auctions and said he doesn't see the recent jump in overnight money-market rates on Monday and Tuesday as a "having implications for the broader economy, or for the economic outlook, nor for the our ability to control rates."
4:30 a.m. Sept. 19, 2019 - By Greg Robb
U.S. current-account deficit narrows 5.9% in second quarterThe U.S. current-account deficit, a measure of the nation's debt to other countries, narrowed by 5.9% in the second quarter, the government said Thursday. The current-account deficit narrowed to $128.2 billion from a revised $136.2 billion in the first quarter. The narrowing of the deficit primarily reflected an expanded surplus of primary income, mostly increases in portfolio investments. The current account deficit was equal to 2.4% of GDP in the second quarter, down from 2.6% in the first quarter. This is well below the peak of 6.3% in 2005.
12:26 p.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
U.S. stocks close mixed after Fed cuts rates but casts doubt on future stimulus Fed cuts interest rates but possibly last for last time this yearU.S. stocks ended Wednesday flat to higher, after the Federal Reserve announced it would cut its benchmark federal funds rate a quarter percentage point, in line with market expectations, but called into question whether there will be another rate cut this year or next.
10:45 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Sven Henrich
Stock market’s eerie parallels to September 2007 should raise recession fears Fed watchers may have just witnessed Powell’s ‘Bernanke moment’Fed watchers may have just witnessed Powell’s ‘Bernanke moment,’ writes Sven Henrich.
10:01 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
FOMC statement after September rate cut A divided Federal Reserve reduces interest rates again The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut a key U.S. interest rate for the second time in two months, but it appears that a clearly divided central bank is unsure of its next step.
10:00 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
FOMC cuts fed funds rate, 7 officials project one more by year end WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday trimmed its benchmark interest rate to 1.75% to 2%, with a sizable minority projecting one more rate reduction in 2019. The central bank has cut rates twice in the past two months as an insurance policy against damage from the U.S. trade war with China. The vote was 7-3. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard preferred a half-point cut. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented for the second meeting in a row, preferring no rate cut. Looking ahead, 10 senior Fed officials projected no more rate cuts this year, but seven viewed one more reduction as likely. Meanwhile, the Fed left its forecast for the economy little changed over the next several years. Notably, the central bank projected no rate changes in 2020 and just one rate hike in both 2021 and 2022.
8:54 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - MarketWatch.com
Fed decision and Jerome Powell press conference: live blog and videoMarketWatch’s live-blog of the Fed’s interest-rate decision, including its dot plot and economic projections.
8:26 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
JPMorgan’s Dimon doubts Trump and China will strike trade deal before 2020 election Business Roundtable says internationally trade dispute hurting hiring and sales President Trump is floating the idea China could agree to a trade deal before the 2020 election, but one of America’s top CEOs is very skeptical. JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said he doubts the U.S. and China will strike an agreement soon.
4:22 a.m. Sept. 18, 2019 - By Greg Robb
3 things to watch as Fed meets on interest rates With quarter-point rate-cut widely expected, Fed watchers hunt for clues about what comes nextHere are 3 things to watch at this week’s Fed interest-rate committee meeting.
12:57 p.m. Sept. 17, 2019 - By Greg Robb
U.S. industrial production up 0.6% in August, largest gain in a year Economist doesn’t think rebound will lastU.S. industrial output rose 0.6% in August, the largest gain in a year, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.
11:53 a.m. Sept. 17, 2019 - By Ernest Liu
How low interest rates can discourage competition, leading to slower growth Researchers find ultra-low rates lead to more concentrated market power and lower investmentLow interest rates have traditionally been viewed as positive for economic growth. But recent research suggests, on the contrary, that extremely low interest rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration.
11:55 a.m. Sept. 16, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields slump after Saudi Arabian oil facilities hit by drone attackTreasury yields fall Monday, reversing a chunk of last week’s surge, after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil production facilities sends oil prices higher.
10:46 a.m. Sept. 16, 2019 - By Philip van Doorn
This low-volatility dividend-stock strategy can give you peace of mind A stable yield and price stability might ease your fear of a recession and economic threatsA stable yield and price stability might ease your fear of a recession and economic threats.
5:54 a.m. Sept. 16, 2019 - By Mark DeCambre
Federal Reserve and global central banks have reached a ‘tipping point’, amplifying stock-market uncertainty ‘Outside of trade talks, there is nothing more relevant than the Fed,’ says Peter Boockvar What’s left for the Federal Reserve to do at its rate-setting gathering next week now the U.S.’s main stock indexes are on the cusp of records again ?
5:45 a.m. Sept. 16, 2019 - By Andrea Riquier
Bank ETFs surge: finally, a breakout, or just another headfake? We’ve seen this beforeFunds that track bank stocks are soaring this week as the yield curve steepens, but there’s reason to be cautious.
8:01 a.m. Sept. 14, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Things are looking up for the economy, but you can’t get too cozy in the Trump era China trade war truce, interest rate cut could prop up economyThe U.S. and China are trying to tone down trade tensions, the Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates and Americans are still spending plenty of money. So all is well again with the U.S. economy, right? Not so fast.
7:32 a.m. Sept. 14, 2019 - By Tim Mullaney
The cost of Trump keeps rising almost daily How much have presidential tweets, threats and policies taken from your wallet?President Donald Trump’s tweets cost you money, but the effect thankfully is only temporary.
5:59 a.m. Sept. 14, 2019 - By Steve Goldstein
Gundlach sees 75% recession chance, has a warning about the corporate bond market Fixed-income-investing notable sees neither Trump nor China as willing to agree to a trade dealJeffrey Gundlach on Thursday struck a pessimistic tone, saying there was a 75% chance of a recession before the next election as he warned the corporate bond market was a crisis waiting to happen.
5:47 a.m. Sept. 14, 2019 - By Jacob Passy
President Trump is calling for negative interest rates — why you shouldn’t wish for that to happen Would zero or negative interest rates help American home buyers?Would zero or negative interest rates help American home buyers?
12:22 p.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
Dow ekes out 8th straight gain as stocks remain in striking distance of record highs U.S. consumers spend more, U.S. China trade tensions easeU.S. stocks close mostly lower but the Dow makes an 8th straight gains as Sino-American trade tensions ease and central banks support risk taking with easy money.
9:15 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
U.S. Treasury yields on pace to see biggest weekly surge in years Bond-market selloff continues to gain traction FridayU.S. government bond are on track to see their biggest selloff in several years.
7:34 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Greg Robb
U.S. consumer sentiment rebounds modestly in September Survey finds neither recession nor a rebound in spending is anticipated in the year aheadThe University of Michigan said its consumer-sentiment index rebounded in September to a reading of 92 from a three-year low of 89.8 in August.
6:38 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Import prices drop again after oil prices fall, U.S. farmers also suffer from price declines U.S. import price index declines 0.5% in AugustThe cost of imported goods fell sharply in August owing to a decline in petroleum prices, indicating the U.S. is facing little price pressures from abroad.
6:25 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Retail sales get big lift from auto purchases as consumers drive U.S. economy forward U.S. retail sales rise 0.4% in August, but sale flat minus autosU.S. retail sales got a big boost in August from purchases of new autos and building supplies, but most other stores reported weak or declining receipts in a sign that consumers trimmed spending toward the end of summer.
6:05 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. business inventories climb 0.4% in JulyWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business inventories in the U.S. rose 0.4% in July after no change in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Sales rose 0.3% in the month. The ratio of inventories to sales, meanwhile, was flat at 1.40. That's how many months it would take to sell all the inventory on hand. One year ago, the inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.35. An increase in inventories adds to gross domestic product while a decrease subtracts from it.
4:47 a.m. Sept. 13, 2019 - By Rex Nutting
Trump puts his own financial interests first when he badgers the Fed to cut interest rates to zero The president is ‘talking his book,’ neglecting to mention that he would save millions of dollars with lower interest ratesThe president is ‘talking his book,’ neglecting to mention that he would save millions of dollars with lower interest rates.
10:19 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By Kate Davidson
Federal budget deficit in first 11 months of fiscal year tops $1 trillion mark Annual U.S. deficits on track to exceed $1 trillion starting this year, due in part to the 2017 tax law, which constrained revenue collection, and a 2018 budget deal that busted spending caps enacted in 2011The U.S. budget gap widened to more than $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the Treasury Department said Thursday, the first time deficits have topped that amount in seven years.
8:58 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By William Watts
ECB cuts key rate, relaunches QE to shore up eurozone economy Euro dips to 2-year low versus U.S. dollar after ECB move, then recoversThe European Central Bank delves deep into its toolbox, cutting its deposit rate further into negative territory, launching a new round of monthly bond purchases and taking other steps to stimulate a flagging eurozone economy.
6:46 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. jobless claims fall to nearly 5-month low of 204,000 around Labor Day holiday Strong labor market weathering slowdown in U.S. economyThe number of people who applied for unemployment benefits around Labor Day fell sharply to a nearly five-month low of 204,000, an extremely low reading that was likely exaggerated by the holiday and possibly Hurricane Dorian.
6:42 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Cheaper gas puts a cap on consumer prices in August, but inflation appears to be rising, CPI shows Underlying inflation climbs to 13-month high of 2.4%Cheaper gasoline kept consumer U.S. inflation in check in August, but rising costs for staples such as health care and housing pointed to a buildup in price pressures after a prolonged lull.
5:45 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By Greg Robb
Trump complains ECB rate cut will hurt U.S. and Mnuchin doesn’t disagree U.S. Treasury Secretary says U.S. wants ‘stable’ dollarPresident Donald Trump reacted quickly and negatively to Thursday’s ECB interest rate cut and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in a subsequent TV interview, didn’t disagree.
5:19 a.m. Sept. 12, 2019 - By William L. Watts
Draghi to Trump: ECB policy makers 'do not target the exchange rate, period'European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday responded to that said the central bank had introduced a sweeping new stimulus plan in a successful bid to weaken the euro versus the U.S. dollar. Asked about the tweet in a news conference following the ECB's policy decision, Draghi said: "We do not target the exchange rate, period." The euro fell versus the dollar, hitting a two-year low, after the ECB pushed its key interest rate further into negative territory, announced the relaunch of its bond-buying program and took other steps to stimulate a flagging eurozone economy. In a tweet, Trump said the ECB was "trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro against the VERY strong Dollar, hurting U.S. exports." Trump repeated his criticism of the U.S. monetary policy makers, saying the Fed "sits, and sits, and sits. They get paid to borrow money, while we are paying interest!"
11:19 a.m. Sept. 11, 2019 - By Sunny Oh
Trend-following bond traders get fingers burned as Treasury yields surge The SG Trend Index is down 6.3% since last TuesdayThe recent surge in Treasury yields is ravaging a group of market participants that had so far reaped significant gains from the bond-market rally this year.
6:52 a.m. Sept. 11, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Wholesale prices inch up in August, PPI shows, but inflation isn’t stirring very much U.S. producer price index up 1.8% in the past 12 monthsThe wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services rose slightly in August, but inflation more broadly was still quite low and showed little sign of stirring up any trouble for the U.S. economy. The producer price index edged up 0.1% last month.
5:13 a.m. Sept. 11, 2019 - By Caroline Baum
The true cost of social media Twitter affects markets, Facebook affects elections, and it all affects the way we interactSocial media is a poor way to communicate anything of substance. It has created discord, not cohesion.
3:06 a.m. Sept. 11, 2019 - By Chris Matthews
U.S.-China trade tensions lead emerging-market investors to flock to Vietnam Vietnam has seen an influx of economic activity as companies seek to avoid tariffs on Chinese importsEmerging market investors are buying up Vietnamese shares as the economy benefits from a reorganization of global supply chains
7:08 a.m. Sept. 10, 2019 - By Jeffry Bartash
Record number of workers quitting shows labor market still strong even as job openings drop and hiring slows The share of workers quitting jobs hits post-2009 recession highJob openings in the U.S. fell slightly in July to a five-month low in a sign of slackening demand for labor, but layoffs remained extremely low and the number of people quitting hit an all-time high, typically a mark of a strong jobs market.
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