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BNY Mellon's Recovery Expectations

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    U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns 2:17
    Opinion: The Opening Economy Hits a Coronavirus Uptick Opinion: The Opening Economy Hits a Coronavirus Uptick 6:08
    Opinion: The U.S. Economy's Fight for Survival Opinion: The U.S. Economy's Fight for Survival 5:55
11:20 a.m. Today - By Azure Gilman
‘I can’t believe this is America.’ Confronted with unprecedented need, New York food pantries try to fill in the gaps Organizations that serve the food insecure are struggling to serve more people than ever before The line for meals curves around the block. Roughly 25% of New York City’s population now faces food insecurity.
9:12 a.m. Today - By Jeffry Bartash
Economists predict U.S. added 1.7 million jobs in July, but admit it’s largely a guess. Here’s what worries them Wall Street braces for poor July jobs report after coronavirus spike The U.S. economy probably suffered a steep decline in hiring and job creation in July, but rarely has Wall Street been so flummoxed about the state of the labor market. The resurgence of the coronavirus and a potentially big shift in school employment could throw the numbers out of whack.
5:48 a.m. Today - By Jeffry Bartash
Jobless claims fall almost 250,000 to 1.19 million to mark new pandemic low Big drop in new jobless claims a surprise to Wall Street Initial jobless claims fell in early August for the first time in three weeks and touched the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic began more than four months ago, a surprising decline that suggest some improvement in the labor market despite an increase another viral outbreak. New applications for unemployment benefits sank by 249,000 to 1.19 million.
5:16 a.m. Today - By Steve Goldstein
Here’s the worrying message the market is sending about the economic recoverySure, the S&P 500 has rallied from the March lows. But other market indicators are telling a worrying story about the economy.
3:30 a.m. Today - By Steve Goldstein
Job-cut announcements surge 54% in July to third-highest on record: ChallengerJob cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped in July to 262,649, the third-largest monthly total ever, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. July's total is 54% higher than the 170,219 job cuts announced in June. Last month's cuts bring the yearly total so far to 1.85 million, up 212% from the 592,556 cuts at this time last year, Challenger said.
1:44 a.m. Today - By Jacob Passy
The number of Americans skipping mortgage payments is falling — except among these borrowers Forbearance plans allow mortgage borrowers to make reduced payments or skip monthly paymentsForbearance plans allow mortgage borrowers to make reduced payments or skip monthly payments.
2:40 p.m. Aug. 5, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Fed’s Mester says labor market is even weaker than data suggests Cleveland Fed president says many companies in her district are laying off workers and cutting payCleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Wednesday the labor market is weaker than the official statistics suggest.
12:05 p.m. Aug. 5, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Consumers hold the key to an economic recovery and right now they’re very anxious Morning Consult poll shows Americans still living in ‘face of fear’ Has the first stage of the U.S. recovery from the coronavirus already peaked? Or has a rebound in the economy merely hit the pause button after a recent surge in Covid-19 cases?
7:29 a.m. Aug. 5, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Service side of the U.S. economy show surprising growth in July, ISM finds, but employment worsens ISM services index rises to 58.1% in July from 57.1% in JuneRetailers, health-care providers and most other service-oriented businesses expanded in July for the second month in a row, suggesting the economy showed more resilience than expected even after a spike in coronavirus cases caused many states to reimpose restrictions.
5:41 a.m. Aug. 5, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Private sector job growth slows sharply in July: ADP U.S firms add just 167,000 jobs last month, compared with forecast of 1.9 millionPrivate sector hiring slowed down sharply in July as employers added 167,000 jobs, ADP reported Wednesday.
5:27 a.m. Aug. 5, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Trade deficit falls 7.5% in June, but imports and exports still way below year-ago levels Global trade has been thrown off badly by the coronavirusThe U.S. trade deficit fell by 7.5% in June after a partial rebound in exports, but the flow of cross-border transactions remained depressed by the global coronavirus pandemic and are still a sore spot for the economy.
3:46 p.m. Aug. 4, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Trump suddenly supports mail-in voting — for the key swing state of Florida President contends deadly Lebanon explosion an ‘attack’After weeks of bashing mail-in voting and even suggesting the 2020 election should be delayed. President Donald Trump has changed his tune — at least when it comes to the critical swing state of Florida. Now he’s for it.
3:32 p.m. Aug. 4, 2020 - By Lingling Wei
U.S., Chinese officials to meet Aug. 15 to assess trade-deal compliance High-level talks also likely to touch on U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech companiesThe U.S. and China have agreed to high-level talks on Aug. 15 to assess Beijing’s compliance with the bilateral trade agreement signed early this year, according to people briefed on the matter.
12:58 p.m. Aug. 4, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. factory orders climb 6.2% in June, signaling steady manufacturing recovery Coronavirus surge hasn’t led to big setback for manufacturingU.S. factory orders rose 6.2% in June to mark the second increase in a row, pointing to a steady rebound after widespread shutdowns in the early stages of the pandemic.
12:11 p.m. Aug. 4, 2020 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield flirts with record closing low as investors grow gloomy on economic reboundU.S. Treasury yields fell Tuesday as investors remained pessimistic about the U.S. economy’s health and eyed the slow pace of negotiations in Congress on another fiscal relief package to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
5:00 a.m. Aug. 4, 2020 - By Greg Robb
IMF says 40% of world’s current account surpluses and deficits are ‘excessive’ IMF says U.S. dollar was 11% overvalued in 2019The U.S. dollar was overvalued against other currencies by 11% in 2019, the International Monetary Fund said in a report released Tuesday
7:56 p.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Fed’s Evans says the power to get the economy going lies with Congress What lawmakers decide on jobless benefits will influence aggregate demand, Chicago Fed president saysChicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday Congress is in the drivers seat in policy decisions needed to ensure economic growth in the near term.
2:47 p.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Meera Jagannathan
Here’s where things stand on the extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits that expired Friday, and why are ‘Karens’ so angry? Monday’s top personal finance stories Monday’s top personal finance storiesMonday’s top personal finance stories
12:01 p.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Sunny Oh
Treasury yields climb after factory data offers positive sign for global economyU.S. Treasury yields rise Monday as strong manufacturing data across the U.S., Europe and China suggests the recovery in the global economy was ongoing despite mounting worries how rising coronavirus infections could stall growth.
7:22 a.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Greg Robb
U.S. labor market is weakening, Fed’s Kaplan says Dallas Fed President now sees jobless rate in 9%-10% range at end of the yearThe rebound in growth in the third quarter is more muted than expected, meaning a higher unemployment rate at the end of the year, said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan on Monday.
7:16 a.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. manufacturers expand in July for third straight month, ISM finds, but executives say not all the jobs are coming back ISM manufacturing index climbs to 15-month high of 54.2%American manufacturers expanded in July for the third month in a row despite an increase in coronavirus cases nationwide, but senior executives say production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and not all the jobs are coming back soon.
6:17 a.m. Aug. 3, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Construction spending falls for fourth straight month in JuneOutlays for construction projects fell 0.7% in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.36 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Monday. This is the fourth straight monthly decline. Economists polled by Econoday had expected a 1.3% increase. Spending in May was revised to a 1.7% fall from the prior estimate of a 2.1% drop. Residential construction fell 1.5% in June, while spending on public construction projects fell 0.7%. Despite the declines, construction spending has held up relatively well in the pandemic, with spending up 0.1% on a year-on-year basis.
11:15 a.m. Aug. 1, 2020 - By Amir Farokhi
How a basic income would help close the racial wealth gap and give Americans needed financial security Atlanta councilman Farokhi: A guaranteed income answers Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s call Providing a guaranteed income answers Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s call, writes Atlanta city councilman Amir Farokhi.
6:28 a.m. July 31, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Consumer sentiment falls in late July as coronavirus cases rise and federal aid gets set to expire U.S. consumer sentiment index slips to 72.5, back near pandemic lowAmericans grew more worried about the economy toward the end of July after a fresh outbreak of coronavirus cases chipped away at the recovery and cast doubt on how quickly the U.S. will rebound from the worst health-care crisis in a century.
5:38 a.m. July 31, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Consumer spending jumps 5.6% in June, but the U.S. recovery already appears to be slowing Incomes fall 1.1% as stimulus fades, fewer Americans return to work Americans increased spending on a variety of goods and services in June as more people returned to work and massive infusions of government aid flowed through the economy, but the progress appears to have waned lately after a recent spike in coronavirus cases. Personal spending jumped 5.6% in June.
4:37 a.m. July 31, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
Employment cost index increase 0.5% in the 2nd quarterWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The cost of employing the average U.S. worker rose 0.5% in the second quarter during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Wages - some 70% of employment costs - increased 0.4% in the second quarter. Benefits jumped 0.8%, according to the government's closely followed employment cost index. In the 12 months ended in June employment costs increased at a modest 2.7% rate, based on unadjusted data. The ECI reflects how much companies, governments and nonprofit institutions pay their employees in wages and benefits. Yet the report is not likely to offer much useful benefit until the pandemic recedes. The viral outbreak has caused the loss of millions of jobs, distorted the labor market and made it almost impossible to glean clear trends from the ECI data.
3:26 a.m. July 31, 2020 - By Rex Nutting
The government kept the economy afloat in the second quarter, so why are Republicans in a rush to pull the support away right before the election? A fiscal cliff looms as the coronavirus pandemic worsens and Election Day approachesGovernment relief checks are the only thing that’s kept tens millions of families from starving or from losing their homes. Why wouldn’t Republicans want to continue that support through the election?
1:56 p.m. July 30, 2020 - By Mareesa Nicosia
A rough September lies ahead for New York City’s tourism sector as major events pivot to virtual  With practically no in-person U.S. Open, Fashion Week or U.N. General Assembly, the city will lose millions of dollars in revenue After the economic devastation of this spring, the next 12 months are expected to be even more painful.
12:50 p.m. July 30, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. economy plunges at titanic 32.9% rate in 2nd quarter and points to drawn-out recovery Coronavirus triggers steepest recession since World War Two An economy badly battered by the coronavirus shrank at a record 32.9% pace in the second quarter, underscoring just how big a hole the U.S. finds itself in as it labors to recover from the deepest recession in American history
12:39 p.m. July 30, 2020 - By Andrew Keshner
Social distancing ‘substantially varies’ by income and why diverse workforces make businesses more profitable Thursday’s Personal Finance Stories Thursday’s Personal Finance StoriesThursday’s Personal Finance Stories.
12:17 p.m. July 30, 2020 - By William Watts
Dow, S&P 500 finish lower but Nasdaq books a gain ahead of parade of earnings from megacap tech-related firms Quarterly results from dozens of high-profile companies were due after Thursday’s close, including Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple and Facebook U.S. stocks finish off their worst levels of the day, with the Nasdaq eking out a positive finish as investors braced for a litany of quarterly results from behemoths of the technology and e-commerce world, which could influence trade to end a choppy week.
12:02 p.m. July 30, 2020 - By Sunny Oh
10-year Treasury yield sinks to lowest since March after GDP, jobless claims point to economic challenges aheadU.S. Treasury yields fall on Thursday as an official snapshot of U.S. growth in the second quarter of this year confirmed the economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
9:20 a.m. July 30, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
‘A massive welfare economy’ - huge federal aid prevents an even steeper GDP collapse U.S. disposable incomes soar in second quarter, thanks to government aid, despite onset of steep recession The U.S. economy’s record contraction in the second quarter would have been a lot worse if Washington hadn’t stepped up with trillions of dollars of emergency spending.
7:52 a.m. July 30, 2020 - By Michael Ashbaugh
Charting a GDP-fueled downdraft, Dow industrials challenge 200-day average Focus: Transports sustain July break atop 200-day average, IYT, TWLO, BSX, PENN, HOMEU.S. stocks are lower early Thursday, pressured after an ugly second-quarter GDP report, signaling an economy contracting at a record 32.9% annual pace. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 has maintained its range bottom — the 3,200 mark — while the Dow industrials have pulled in to a headline test of the 200-day moving average, currently 26,230.
5:59 a.m. July 30, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Jobless claims rise for second straight week as U.S. economic activity slows down Continuing claims also rise, a sign of a pause in U.S. rehiringInitial claims for state unemployment insurance rose for the second straight week, the Labor Department said Thursday.
1:39 p.m. July 29, 2020 - By Greg Robb
Fed’s Powell sees U.S. economy flattening as coronavirus cases rise The path of the U.S. economy is tied the course of the virus, central bank saysFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the rise in coronavirus cases is slowing the economy.
1:26 p.m. July 29, 2020 - By Andrew Keshner
Why ‘Karens’ are so angry, and how plans to bring back college students get derailed by the COVID-19 surge Wednesday’s Personal Finance Stories Wednesday’s Personal Finance Stories Wednesday’s Personal Finance Stories.
1:23 p.m. July 29, 2020 - By Virginia K. Smith
New York metropolitan area lost nearly 1.5 million jobs in June, the most of any U.S. city New unemployment numbers show cities that rely on tourism among the hardest hitNew York City may have finally entered Phase 4 of its reopening, but the city’s economy is still a shell of its usual self.
12:22 p.m. July 29, 2020 - By Joy Wiltermuth
U.S. stocks close higher after Fed keeps interest rates near zero, Powell vows to keep up support during pandemic Big tech CEOs of Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet Inc. grilled before House antitrust panelS&P 500, Nasdaq finished more than 1.2% higher Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates unchanged and the central bank’s Powell reiterated his promise to keep rates near zero and stimulus intact until the threat of the coronavirus to the U.S. economy has passed.
6:54 a.m. July 29, 2020 - By Jeffry Bartash
U.S. GDP likely sank a record 35% in the 2nd quarter after coronavirus ravaged the economy U.S. GDP set to post biggest decline since World War TwoThe U.S. suffered the biggest economic decline in the second quarter since the government began keeping track after World War Two. How much? Try 30% — or more.
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