Adobe Inc. /zigman2/quotes/200389143/composite ADBE +2.09% expects U.S. online holiday sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 to reach $207 billion, a new record. That forecast represents a 10% rise versus 2020. The five-day period from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday is expected to drive $36 billion in sales, about 17% of the entire season, however growth during that period is slowing. Shoppers and retailers are also feeling the impact of global supply chain problems with out-of-stock messages soaring 172% compared with the pre-pandemic period. Adobe expects out-of-stocks to remain at that level and possibly increase for certain items. Apparel is experiencing the most out-of-stocks. The use of buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) options is also increasing, up 10% from last year and up 45% from 2019. "We are entering a second holiday season where the pandemic will dictate the terms," said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, in a statement. "Limited product availability, higher prices, and concerns about shipping delays will drive another surge towards e-commerce, as it provides more flexibility in how and when consumers choose to shop." The Amplify Online Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/206522380/composite IBUY +3.16% has slipped 1% for the year to date while the S&P 500 index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +1.12% is up 20.7% for the period.