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Philip van Doorn

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Oct. 30, 2021, 9:38 a.m. EDT

Why increased capital spending is setting up this select group of industrial stocks to outperform in the next few years

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By Philip van Doorn

The U.S. economy has changed. Besides years of very low interest rates and the pandemic recession, the new reality seems to be extended labor shortages despite big wage increases. But there’s no shortage of demand for goods and services.

Meanwhile, there’s a good chance that the fiscal policy that’s helping to drive demand will continue, even if Congress passes a slimmed-down version of the “Build Back Better” legislation that President Biden wants.

What do companies do when demand is increasing, especially when they expect the labor market to remain tight? They increase spending on industrial capacity, automation and distribution networks. That means higher capital spending.

Below is an analysis of capital goods companies in the S&P 500 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +0.31% , showing which ones are expected to increase sales the most over the next several years.

The upswing in capital spending has already started, as you can see in this chart shared by LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick:

Screen of capital goods stocks

In the S&P 500, there are 11 sectors, including the industrial sector, which itself can be broken down using Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) industry groups: Capital Goods, Transportation, and Commercial and Professional Services.

There are 46 companies in the S&P 500 Capital Goods GICS industry group.

The group trades at a weighted forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6, which is a bit lower than the full S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21.3, according to FactSet. The two groups typically trade at similar P/E ratios. The full index has traded slightly higher, on average, over the past three years, but the Capital Goods group has traded a bit higher per the 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 20-year average valuations.

The current discount for the Capital Goods group may be of interest because the group is expected to increase sales at a faster compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next two years (which is as far out as FactSet’s aggregate data goes):

2021 2022 2023 Expected two-year sales CAGR
Estimated sales per share – S&P 500 Capital Goods $372.21 $407.20 $428.76 7.33%
Estimated sales per share – Full S&P 500 $1,541.45 $1,642.76 $1,720.82 5.66%
Source: FactSet

Three tables of capital goods stocks

We will break down the 46 S&P 500 companies in the Capital Goods GICS category by how far out available consensus sales estimates go.

2025 group

Consensus sales estimates among analysts polled by FactSet are available through calendar 2025 for 18 of the 46 capital goods companies. (We are using calendar-year estimates, even for 2021, because many companies report fiscal years that don’t match the calendar.)

Here they are, ranked by expected four-year sales CAGR. Sales figures are in millions of dollars:

Company Est. sales – 2021 Est. sales – 2022 Est. sales – 2023 Est. sales – 2024 Est. sales – 2025 Four-year estimated sales CAGR
Generac Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208144117/composite GNRC $3,723 $4,565 $5,060 $5,820 $6,408 14.5%
Quanta Services Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203420082/composite PWR $12,375 $15,994 $17,621 $19,098 $20,284 13.1%
Boeing Co. /zigman2/quotes/208579720/composite BA $70,306 $91,732 $93,175 $98,309 $113,288 12.7%
Raytheon Technologies Corp. /zigman2/quotes/203237915/composite RTX $64,876 $70,837 $75,726 $79,987 $86,280 7.4%
Idex Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200902545/composite IEX $2,732 $2,929 $3,098 $3,306 $3,497 6.4%
Illinois Tool Works Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208031922/composite ITW $14,387 $15,289 $15,991 $16,900 $17,978 5.7%
Ingersoll Rand Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202048975/composite IR $5,088 $5,530 $5,877 $6,121 $6,291 5.4%
Johnson Controls International PLC /zigman2/quotes/203776087/composite JCI $24,145 $25,785 $27,194 $28,631 $29,838 5.4%
Pentair PLC /zigman2/quotes/208874493/composite PNR $3,707 $3,960 $4,102 $4,339 $4,561 5.3%
Xylem Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208279712/composite XYL $5,315 $5,639 $5,937 $6,171 $6,516 5.2%
Northrop Grumman Corp. /zigman2/quotes/205518355/composite NOC $36,252 $38,086 $39,894 $41,932 $44,264 5.1%
Eaton Corp. PLC /zigman2/quotes/205393239/composite ETN $19,854 $20,374 $21,401 $22,556 $23,825 4.7%
A. O. Smith Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208962119/composite AOS $3,408 $3,714 $3,850 $3,945 $4,085 4.6%
L3Harris Technologies Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201997607/composite LHX $18,456 $19,093 $19,831 $20,702 $21,799 4.2%
General Dynamics Corp. /zigman2/quotes/208560027/composite GD $39,293 $40,838 $42,764 $44,404 $46,299 4.2%
Otis Worldwide Corp. /zigman2/quotes/217080227/composite OTIS $14,295 $14,810 $15,406 $16,061 $16,236 3.2%
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite HII $9,605 $10,623 $11,361 $11,320 $10,836 3.1%
Lockheed Martin Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200691238/composite LMT $67,628 $68,687 $69,132 $70,709 $71,142 1.3%
Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click  here  for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on MarketWatch’s quote page.

2024 group

Sales estimates are available through 2024 for 37 companies. Here are the top 20, ranked by expected three-year sales CAGR:

Company Est. sales – 2021 Est. sales – 2022 Est. sales – 2023 Est. sales – 2024 Three-year estimated sales CAGR
Generac Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208144117/composite GNRC $3,723 $4,565 $5,060 $5,820 16.1%
Quanta Services Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203420082/composite PWR $12,375 $15,994 $17,621 $19,098 15.6%
Boeing Co. /zigman2/quotes/208579720/composite BA $70,306 $91,732 $93,175 $98,309 11.8%
Paccar Inc. /zigman2/quotes/207923670/composite PCAR $20,989 $24,802 $26,454 $28,710 11.0%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202463214/composite HWM $5,120 $5,891 $6,478 $6,999 11.0%
Roper Technologies Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204270015/composite ROP $5,921 $6,206 $6,584 $7,643 8.9%
Fastenal Co. /zigman2/quotes/206312496/composite FAST $5,930 $6,434 $6,932 $7,541 8.3%
Fortive Corp. /zigman2/quotes/207268286/composite FTV $5,324 $5,661 $5,966 $6,656 7.7%
W.W. Grainger Inc. /zigman2/quotes/200853098/composite GWW $12,828 $13,756 $14,828 $15,936 7.5%
Allegion PLC /zigman2/quotes/207562898/composite ALLE $2,838 $3,058 $3,242 $3,523 7.5%
Parker-Hannifin Corp. /zigman2/quotes/202924304/composite PH $14,928 $16,065 $17,232 $18,480 7.4%
Raytheon Technologies Corp. /zigman2/quotes/203237915/composite RTX $64,876 $70,837 $75,726 $79,987 7.2%
Idex Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200902545/composite IEX $2,732 $2,929 $3,098 $3,306 6.6%
Ingersoll Rand Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202048975/composite IR $5,088 $5,530 $5,877 $6,121 6.4%
United Rentals Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204230955/composite URI $9,589 $10,393 $11,022 $11,527 6.3%
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206369278/composite SWK $17,248 $19,185 $19,994 $20,675 6.2%
Honeywell International Inc. /zigman2/quotes/205583690/composite HON $34,627 $37,005 $39,411 $41,463 6.2%
Johnson Controls International PLC /zigman2/quotes/203776087/composite JCI $24,145 $25,785 $27,194 $28,631 5.8%
General Electric Co. /zigman2/quotes/208495069/composite GE $75,848 $80,745 $86,117 $89,742 5.8%
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite HII $9,605 $10,623 $11,361 $11,320 5.6%
Source: FactSet

2023 group

Among the 46 companies in the S&P 500 capital goods group, consensus sales estimates are available through calendar 2023 for 45 companies. Here are the top 20, ranked by expected two-year sales CAGR:

Company Est. sales – 2021 Est. sales – 2022 Est. sales – 2023 Two-year estimated sales CAGR
Quanta Services Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203420082/composite PWR $12,375 $15,994 $17,621 19.3%
Generac Holdings Inc. /zigman2/quotes/208144117/composite GNRC $3,723 $4,565 $5,060 16.6%
Boeing Co. /zigman2/quotes/208579720/composite BA $70,306 $91,732 $93,175 15.1%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202463214/composite HWM $5,120 $5,891 $6,478 12.5%
Paccar Inc. /zigman2/quotes/207923670/composite PCAR $20,989 $24,802 $26,454 12.3%
TransDigm Group Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203902625/composite TDG $4,986 $5,601 $6,221 11.7%
Caterpillar Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203434128/composite CAT $50,164 $55,988 $60,263 9.6%
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. /zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite HII $9,605 $10,623 $11,361 8.8%
Fastenal Co. /zigman2/quotes/206312496/composite FAST $5,930 $6,434 $6,932 8.1%
Raytheon Technologies Corp. /zigman2/quotes/203237915/composite RTX $64,876 $70,837 $75,726 8.0%
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206369278/composite SWK $17,248 $19,185 $19,994 7.7%
W.W. Grainger Inc. /zigman2/quotes/200853098/composite GWW $12,828 $13,756 $14,828 7.5%
Ingersoll Rand Inc. /zigman2/quotes/202048975/composite IR $5,088 $5,530 $5,877 7.5%
Parker-Hannifin Corp. /zigman2/quotes/202924304/composite PH $14,928 $16,065 $17,232 7.4%
Ametek Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206910371/composite AME $5,436 $5,904 $6,260 7.3%
United Rentals Inc. /zigman2/quotes/204230955/composite URI $9,589 $10,393 $11,022 7.2%
Rockwell Automation Inc. /zigman2/quotes/206335564/composite ROK $7,271 $7,903 $8,310 6.9%
Allegion PLC /zigman2/quotes/207562898/composite ALLE $2,838 $3,058 $3,242 6.9%
Textron Inc. /zigman2/quotes/210490092/composite TXT $12,809 $13,831 $14,595 6.7%
Honeywell International Inc. /zigman2/quotes/205583690/composite HON $34,627 $37,005 $39,411 6.7%
Source: FactSet

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/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
4,701.21
+14.46 +0.31%
Volume: 2.16B
Dec. 8, 2021 4:59p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/208144117/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 367.98
+9.56 +2.67%
Volume: 1.08M
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P/E Ratio
44.76
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$22.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$365,632
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/zigman2/quotes/203420082/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 116.06
-0.94 -0.80%
Volume: 1.02M
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P/E Ratio
30.45
Dividend Yield
0.24%
Market Cap
$16.67 billion
Rev. per Employee
$312,924
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$ 211.03
+2.20 +1.05%
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N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$122.73 billion
Rev. per Employee
$412,489
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$ 86.50
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$ 237.09
+1.95 +0.83%
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0.91%
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Rev. per Employee
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0.13%
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$ 79.54
+0.39 +0.49%
Volume: 2.51M
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P/E Ratio
35.06
Dividend Yield
1.36%
Market Cap
$55.75 billion
Rev. per Employee
$234,337
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$ 74.71
-0.05 -0.07%
Volume: 1.14M
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P/E Ratio
24.69
Dividend Yield
1.12%
Market Cap
$12.37 billion
Rev. per Employee
$309,518
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 124.15
-0.02 -0.02%
Volume: 896,153
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P/E Ratio
48.77
Dividend Yield
0.90%
Market Cap
$22.39 billion
Rev. per Employee
$291,737
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 364.09
+1.42 +0.39%
Volume: 467,460
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
12.80
Dividend Yield
1.72%
Market Cap
$57.50 billion
Rev. per Employee
$379,371
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/zigman2/quotes/205393239/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 169.92
-0.67 -0.39%
Volume: 1.99M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
32.98
Dividend Yield
1.79%
Market Cap
$68.00 billion
Rev. per Employee
$194,136
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/zigman2/quotes/208962119/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 82.98
+0.09 +0.11%
Volume: 834,644
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
28.74
Dividend Yield
1.35%
Market Cap
$13.19 billion
Rev. per Employee
$208,295
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$ 216.63
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1.88%
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$42.13 billion
Rev. per Employee
$379,042
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 200.88
+1.56 +0.78%
Volume: 781,083
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
2.37%
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$55.65 billion
Rev. per Employee
$376,614
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 86.21
+0.51 +0.60%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.11%
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$36.40 billion
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$184,870
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/zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 186.34
+1.65 +0.89%
Volume: 264,851
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Dividend Yield
2.53%
Market Cap
$7.40 billion
Rev. per Employee
$222,881
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 341.08
+1.91 +0.56%
Volume: 1.38M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
3.28%
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$93.54 billion
Rev. per Employee
$573,667
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 367.98
+9.56 +2.67%
Volume: 1.08M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
44.76
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$22.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$365,632
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/zigman2/quotes/203420082/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 116.06
-0.94 -0.80%
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P/E Ratio
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0.24%
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$16.67 billion
Rev. per Employee
$312,924
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 211.03
+2.20 +1.05%
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N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$122.73 billion
Rev. per Employee
$412,489
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 88.91
+1.30 +1.48%
Volume: 1.71M
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P/E Ratio
17.73
Dividend Yield
1.53%
Market Cap
$30.42 billion
Rev. per Employee
$720,173
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 31.08
+0.25 +0.81%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
0.26%
Market Cap
$13.17 billion
Rev. per Employee
$266,954
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 471.86
-0.07 -0.01%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
0.53%
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$49.78 billion
Rev. per Employee
$300,386
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$ 62.87
-0.34 -0.54%
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.78%
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Rev. per Employee
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$ 75.65
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P/E Ratio
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$26.93 billion
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/zigman2/quotes/200853098/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 505.70
-2.02 -0.40%
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P/E Ratio
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1.28%
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$26.16 billion
Rev. per Employee
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 132.48
+0.74 +0.56%
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P/E Ratio
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 316.23
+1.77 +0.56%
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Dividend Yield
2.36%
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$127.24 billion
Rev. per Employee
$313,088
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$ 237.09
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P/E Ratio
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0.91%
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$17.88 billion
Rev. per Employee
$332,388
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/zigman2/quotes/202048975/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 60.15
+0.42 +0.70%
Volume: 2.62M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
0.13%
Market Cap
$24.35 billion
Rev. per Employee
$308,818
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 356.96
+0.21 +0.06%
Volume: 544,003
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$25.83 billion
Rev. per Employee
$467,397
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/zigman2/quotes/206369278/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 192.22
+6.17 +3.32%
Volume: 2.47M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.64%
Market Cap
$30.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$273,721
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US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 204.65
-2.50 -1.21%
Volume: 5.00M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.92%
Market Cap
$142.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$316,893
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/zigman2/quotes/203776087/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 79.54
+0.39 +0.49%
Volume: 2.51M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
1.36%
Market Cap
$55.75 billion
Rev. per Employee
$234,337
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/zigman2/quotes/208495069/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 98.28
+0.73 +0.75%
Volume: 4.76M
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
0.33%
Market Cap
$107.12 billion
Rev. per Employee
$459,155
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/zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 186.34
+1.65 +0.89%
Volume: 264,851
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P/E Ratio
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Dividend Yield
2.53%
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$7.40 billion
Rev. per Employee
$222,881
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US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 116.06
-0.94 -0.80%
Volume: 1.02M
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P/E Ratio
30.45
Dividend Yield
0.24%
Market Cap
$16.67 billion
Rev. per Employee
$312,924
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/zigman2/quotes/208144117/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 367.98
+9.56 +2.67%
Volume: 1.08M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
44.76
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$22.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$365,632
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/zigman2/quotes/208579720/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 211.03
+2.20 +1.05%
Volume: 6.99M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$122.73 billion
Rev. per Employee
$412,489
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/zigman2/quotes/202463214/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 31.08
+0.25 +0.81%
Volume: 2.02M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:03p
P/E Ratio
48.04
Dividend Yield
0.26%
Market Cap
$13.17 billion
Rev. per Employee
$266,954
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/zigman2/quotes/207923670/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 88.91
+1.30 +1.48%
Volume: 1.71M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
17.73
Dividend Yield
1.53%
Market Cap
$30.42 billion
Rev. per Employee
$720,173
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/zigman2/quotes/203902625/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 612.57
+9.21 +1.53%
Volume: 189,552
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
59.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Market Cap
$33.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$360,827
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/zigman2/quotes/203434128/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 204.19
-0.30 -0.15%
Volume: 2.34M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
21.82
Dividend Yield
2.17%
Market Cap
$110.62 billion
Rev. per Employee
$429,044
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/zigman2/quotes/201887483/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 186.34
+1.65 +0.89%
Volume: 264,851
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
11.17
Dividend Yield
2.53%
Market Cap
$7.40 billion
Rev. per Employee
$222,881
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/zigman2/quotes/206312496/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 62.87
-0.34 -0.54%
Volume: 3.24M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
40.75
Dividend Yield
1.78%
Market Cap
$36.36 billion
Rev. per Employee
$277,304
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/zigman2/quotes/203237915/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 86.50
+1.49 +1.75%
Volume: 6.75M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
39.44
Dividend Yield
2.36%
Market Cap
$127.24 billion
Rev. per Employee
$313,088
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/zigman2/quotes/206369278/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 192.22
+6.17 +3.32%
Volume: 2.47M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
17.19
Dividend Yield
1.64%
Market Cap
$30.33 billion
Rev. per Employee
$273,721
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/zigman2/quotes/200853098/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 505.70
-2.02 -0.40%
Volume: 182,246
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
28.69
Dividend Yield
1.28%
Market Cap
$26.16 billion
Rev. per Employee
$510,693
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/zigman2/quotes/202048975/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 60.15
+0.42 +0.70%
Volume: 2.62M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:03p
P/E Ratio
38.48
Dividend Yield
0.13%
Market Cap
$24.35 billion
Rev. per Employee
$308,818
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/zigman2/quotes/202924304/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 316.23
+1.77 +0.56%
Volume: 409,103
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
22.13
Dividend Yield
1.30%
Market Cap
$40.41 billion
Rev. per Employee
$262,585
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/zigman2/quotes/206910371/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 141.06
+0.66 +0.47%
Volume: 626,739
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
35.29
Dividend Yield
0.57%
Market Cap
$32.48 billion
Rev. per Employee
$275,153
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/zigman2/quotes/204230955/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 356.96
+0.21 +0.06%
Volume: 544,003
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
21.58
Dividend Yield
N/A
Market Cap
$25.83 billion
Rev. per Employee
$467,397
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/zigman2/quotes/206335564/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 348.45
-2.31 -0.66%
Volume: 450,681
Dec. 8, 2021 4:03p
P/E Ratio
30.09
Dividend Yield
1.29%
Market Cap
$40.68 billion
Rev. per Employee
$285,531
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/zigman2/quotes/207562898/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 132.48
+0.74 +0.56%
Volume: 765,848
Dec. 8, 2021 4:02p
P/E Ratio
26.01
Dividend Yield
1.09%
Market Cap
$11.82 billion
Rev. per Employee
$236,513
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/zigman2/quotes/210490092/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE
$ 75.08
-0.13 -0.17%
Volume: 906,790
Dec. 8, 2021 4:03p
P/E Ratio
22.11
Dividend Yield
0.11%
Market Cap
$16.58 billion
Rev. per Employee
$353,061
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/zigman2/quotes/205583690/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 204.65
-2.50 -1.21%
Volume: 5.00M
Dec. 8, 2021 4:00p
P/E Ratio
26.33
Dividend Yield
1.92%
Market Cap
$142.61 billion
Rev. per Employee
$316,893
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