Gold sentiment still hasn’t gotten excessively bearish, and that’s why the metal keeps falling

By Mark Hulbert

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Gold will continue to struggle until gold market timers become significantly more bearish.

That’s the lead sentence of a column I wrote two months ago that focused on a contrarian analysis of sentiment among gold market timers. And it remains just as applicable today. At no point since then has gold /zigman2/quotes/200593176/composite GLD -0.80% sentiment dropped into the “excessive bearishness” zone that triggers a contrarian buy signal.

And, sure enough, gold /zigman2/quotes/210034565/delayed GC00 -0.48% has struggled. Bullion today is trading for more than $90 per ounce less than it was then. Gold mining shares have performed even worse: The VanEck Gold Miners ETF /zigman2/quotes/206399889/composite GDX -2.70% is more than 20% lower today than in early May.

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SPDR Gold Shares

US : U.S.: NYSE Arca

$ 176.28

-1.42 -0.80%

Volume: 7.18M

Sept. 26, 2023 4:00p

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Gold Continuous Contract

US : U.S.: Nymex

$ 1,910.60

-9.20 -0.48%

Volume: 59,145

Sept. 27, 2023 7:20a

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF

US : U.S.: NYSE Arca

$ 27.74

-0.77 -2.70%

Volume: 18.92M

Sept. 26, 2023 4:00p