Deloitte is forecasting a 7% to 9% increase in holiday retail sales this year, reaching a total of $1.28 trillion to $1.30 trillion during the November to January period. E-commerce is expected to grow 11% to 15% to between $210 billion and $218 billion. "As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster, in a statement. "A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season." Mastercard SpendingPulse /zigman2/quotes/207581792/composite MA +0.87% expects a 7.4% U.S. retail sales rise for the holiday season. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF /zigman2/quotes/206947004/composite XRT +1.60% has run up 43.8% for the year to date while the benchmark S&P 500 index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +0.23% is up 19% for the period.