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June 28, 2022, 9:56 a.m. EDT

Home-price growth continues in April, Case-Shiller says

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By Aarthi Swaminathan and Greg Robb

The numbers:  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index posted a 21.2% year-over-year gain in April, up slightly from 21.1% in the previous month.

In April, the 20-month index rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3%.

A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed a 1.6% monthly gain. And over the last year, the FHFA index was up 18.8%.

Key details: Tampa, Miami and Phoenix reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April. Price growth was strongest in the South and Southeast, which saw over 30% growth.

D.C., Minneapolis, and Chicago reported the lowest year-over-year gains, though these cities still saw home prices grow.

Big picture:   Sharply declining affordability should start to restrain house price appreciation over the remainder of the year, but industry reports don’t suggest any slowdown in April, said Lou Crandall, chief economist of Wrightson ICAP, in a note prior to the release of the data.

The cost of borrowing has increased dramatically since last year, with the average on the 30-year fixed-rate at 5.81%, according to Freddie Mac . Last year around the same time, that rate was at 3.02%.

What the producers of the report said: “We continue to observe very broad strength in the housing market, as all 20 cities notched double -digit price increases for the 12 months ended in April,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a press release. “April’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them.”

But there was a “notable deceleration of monthly gains in the Western markets,” Selma Hepp of S&P CoreLogic noted, “where a rush to lock in favorable mortgage rates pushed home prices higher in prior months.”

With mortgage rates rising, a “more challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer,” she added.

What outside economists said: “Anecdotal reports suggest that price trends are just beginning to cool off somewhat, but given the lags in reporting, it may take another month or two for that to show up in these aggregates,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist, Amherst Pierpont said in a note.

“From what I am reading, however,” he added, “the housing market is coming off the boil, but it is not turning weak so far, just less overheated.”

Market reaction: Stocks /zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime DJIA +0.21% /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX +0.06% traded higher during the morning session on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note /zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y +4.10% rose to 3.219%.

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