By Philip van Doorn, MarketWatch
The remarkable recovery of U.S. stocks illustrates how markets tend to overshoot major events. This can set up opportunities for large gains over short periods. It also underlines the need to be careful with statistics.
Here’s a chart showing the movement of the S&P 500 Index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -0.54% this year through June 5:
Through Friday, the benchmark index was down only 1% for 2020, despite the coronavirus outbreak, the unprecedented shutdown of major portions of the U.S. economy, and all the fear that led the index to be down 31% for 2020 through March 23.
The well-known hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said during a CNBC interview Monday that he was “humbled” by the stock market’s recovery, and had missed out on most of it. He said he had underestimated the effect of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to enhance liquidity and the power of investors’ enthusiasm for the reopening of the economy.
Now here’s a chart of continuous contract prices for West Texas crude oil this year through June 5:
WTI is still down 35% this year, but you can see the continuous contract price went from $61.06 at the end of 2018, to as low as $6.50 (intraday) on April 21, to $39.55 Friday.
Mark Grant, the chief global strategist for fixed income at B. Riley FBR, wrote repeatedly in his “Out of the Box” email commentary that this year’s oil doldrums were a “blip” and that the low prices signaled opportunities for long-term investors.
On Monday, Grant wrote: “I continue to think that there are opportunities left in this space as many people and institutions have not fully warmed up to what is underway yet. “
The following table includes the 25 stocks among the S&P 500 that were down at least 60% in the first quarter. They are sorted by those declines, and you can see that all have shot up in the second quarter:
|Company||Ticker||Price change - first quarter, 2020||Price change - second quarter through June 5||Price change - 2020||Price change - 2019|
|Apache Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite APA||-84%||284%||-37%||-3%|
|Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.||/zigman2/quotes/204183397/composite NCLH||-81%||105%||-62%||38%|
|Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.||/zigman2/quotes/208854639/composite RCL||-76%||116%||-48%||37%|
|Marathon Oil Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/205031829/composite MRO||-76%||122%||-46%||-5%|
|Noble Energy Inc.||-76%||86%||-55%||32%|
|Carnival Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/202325446/composite CCL||-74%||63%||-52%||3%|
|Devon Energy Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/209479244/composite DVN||-73%||111%||-44%||15%|
|Halliburton Co.||/zigman2/quotes/210488727/composite HAL||-72%||112%||-41%||-8%|
|Occidental Petroleum Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/207018272/composite OXY||-72%||80%||-50%||-33%|
|Diamondback Energy Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/201200230/composite FANG||-72%||99%||-44%||0%|
|Kohl's Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/210414114/composite KSS||-71%||82%||-48%||-23%|
|Oneok Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/205201756/composite OKE||-71%||108%||-40%||40%|
|Alliance Data Systems Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/205162001/composite ADS||-70%||79%||-46%||-25%|
|TechnipFMC PLC||/zigman2/quotes/207530935/composite FTI||-69%||42%||-55%||9%|
|ViacomCBS Inc. Class B||/zigman2/quotes/200340870/composite VIAC||-67%||77%||-41%||-4%|
|Schlumberger NV||/zigman2/quotes/201012972/composite SLB||-66%||63%||-45%||11%|
|DXC Technology Co.||/zigman2/quotes/200279350/composite DXC||-65%||38%||-52%||-29%|
|MGM Resorts International||/zigman2/quotes/209932643/composite MGM||-65%||84%||-35%||37%|
|PVH Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/208313660/composite PVH||-64%||67%||-40%||13%|
|United Airlines Holdings Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/205037281/composite UAL||-64%||34%||-52%||5%|
|Simon Property Group Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/209746667/composite SPG||-63%||62%||-41%||-11%|
|Nordstrom Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/203902116/composite JWN||-63%||47%||-45%||-12%|
|Marathon Petroleum Corp.||/zigman2/quotes/209634297/composite MPC||-61%||76%||-31%||2%|
|National Oilwell Varco Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/208758290/composite NOV||-61%||53%||-40%||-3%|
|Gap Inc.||/zigman2/quotes/206554267/composite GPS||-60%||75%||-30%||-31%|
If you had decided to, and been able to, invest $1,000 a apiece in those 25 stocks at the close March 31, your value would have risen to $46,669 at the close June 5.
The stock market tends to overreact to major events. Nearly half the names on the list are energy companies, which suffered the double-whammy of the economic shutdown and the increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries while demand collapsed. That problem has been solved, for now.
In late March, the average investor would probably have told you to get your head examined if you said you were buying energy stocks. In hindsight, it didn’t take very long for oil prices to begin recovering.
The same can be said of the entire stock market. The crash from the record high Feb. 19 was easy to understand, with the shocking spread of COVID-19 and the quick shutdown of so much business. It was easy to lose all hope. But here we are, with hope (and Fed money) driving an equally astonishing market recovery.
So what is the confusing part? It’s that a high percentage increase in a short period doesn’t mean a stock really has “recovered.” Consider Apache Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200648444/composite APA -1.27% : The stock is up 284% during the second quarter, but it’s still down 37% for 2020.