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Lawrence G. McMillan

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Feb. 18, 2021, 10:51 a.m. EST

Keep riding the stock market’s momentum — cautiously

How to trade the large premium on the March VIX futures

By Lawrence G. McMillan, MarketWatch


AFP/Getty Images

The S&P 500 index /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -0.54% continues to plow ahead, having made new intraday and closing all-time highs on Feb. 15 and Feb. 16. The Nasdaq-100 /zigman2/quotes/210598364/realtime NDX -0.59%   /zigman2/quotes/208575548/composite QQQ -0.52% did so on the same dates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime DJIA -0.42% /zigman2/quotes/208954582/composite DIA -0.38%  just made its new all-time on Feb. 17. The Russell 2000 /zigman2/quotes/210598147/delayed RUT -0.62%   /zigman2/quotes/209961116/composite IWM -0.66% is a little weaker than those, having made its latest all-time highs a week ago, on Feb. 9 and Feb. 10.

In any case, these are all at or very near all-time highs, and their charts are trending higher: moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are sloping upward. That is the main thing: the trend of the market is upward, and thus we are bullish as long as that is the case, but we are also on the lookout for signs of weakness, as evidenced by confirmed sell signals from our indicators.

/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
4,395.26
-23.89 -0.54%
Volume: 2.25B
July 30, 2021 5:06p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598364/realtime
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
14,959.90
-88.47 -0.59%
Volume: 641,609
July 30, 2021 5:16p
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/zigman2/quotes/208575548/composite
US : U.S.: Nasdaq
$ 364.57
-1.91 -0.52%
Volume: 36.48M
July 30, 2021 4:00p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime
US : Dow Jones Global
34,935.47
-149.06 -0.42%
Volume: 281.14M
July 30, 2021 5:06p
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/zigman2/quotes/208954582/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 349.48
-1.34 -0.38%
Volume: 3.58M
July 30, 2021 4:00p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598147/delayed
US : US Composite
2,226.25
-13.78 -0.62%
Volume: 1.38M
July 30, 2021 7:12p
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/zigman2/quotes/209961116/composite
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
$ 221.05
-1.47 -0.66%
Volume: 28.47M
July 30, 2021 4:00p
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