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Oct. 5, 2022, 9:44 a.m. EDT

Midterm elections: Republicans regain edge over Democrats in generic ballot, scoring biggest advantage in 2 months in key indicator

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By Victor Reklaitis

The Republican Party has an edge again in the generic ballot, and that advantage has reached a level last seen in late July, according to a RealClearPolitics average for that closely watched indicator.

That could be another sign that the GOP may be getting back some momentum as November’s midterm elections approach, after Democratic prospects improved during the summer .

Republicans are now scoring 46.0% support in the  RCP average  of generic ballots, a percentage point ahead of Democrats at 45.0%.

The GOP hit a 1-point edge last Wednesday, then saw a dip, but as of Tuesday was back at that level, as shown in the chart below.

It’s not a big advantage, but it’s the best showing for Republicans in RCP’s data for generic ballots since July 28, as Democrats had the advantage for much of August and September.

Related: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

Also read: ‘Republican control of the House is not a foregone conclusion,’ says political analyst

The generic ballot refers to a poll question that asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election without naming individual candidates.  Analysts tend to see it as a useful indicator .

Other websites focused on political analysis and forecasting, such as FiveThirtyEight, still show Democrats with an edge in their data for generic ballots.

Election Day for the midterm contests is now five weeks away. Democrats have focused their campaigns on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s June decision  that overturned Roe v. Wade, while Republicans have seized on Americans’ frustration with high inflation.

The additional chart below is interactive and shows RCP’s data for the generic ballot over a longer time frame.

Related: Biden to talk up Democrats’ support for abortion rights, with midterm elections now just 5 weeks away

And see:   New poll finds just 30% of Americans approve of how Biden is handling inflation

Plus:   Republicans’ chances for taking control of Senate rebound to 46%, a level last seen about 8 weeks ago

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