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Nov. 26, 2021, 10:57 a.m. EST

On an ugly day for markets, here’s the S&P 500 level investors need to watch closely, says this trader

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By Barbara Kollmeyer

Black Friday indeed.

Some grim headline are greeting those investors who aren’t stretching out the Thanksgiving holiday into a long weekend, with news of a new COVID variant — B.1.1.529 —detected in South Africa. It’s the most heavily mutated so far, which means it could be more transmissible and resistant to vaccines. There is no evidence, though, that current vaccines will be less effective against the new variant.

But it’s exactly what investors didn’t want to hear as we close in on two years since the pandemic first reared its ugly head in China.

Just about everything associated with risk is in the clutches of a deep selloff, which could make today’s session either a basket of bargains or a buyer-be-wary basket case.

A team at Saxo Bank advises traders to “tread with extreme care, given that near term volatility risks are extreme on the unfortunate timing, particularly giving the sudden shift in focus that this news brings relative to recent themes and current market positioning.”

The one mercy for Friday is that it’s a shorter session for Wall Street.

Our call of the day comes from Sven Henrich, founder of Northman Trader , who has been up early, scanning the charts and offering up the levels investors need to watch. And the winner, so to speak, for the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -1.89% is 4,550, the high for early September.

“As long as this area holds bulls are fine as this could simply be a back test of the breakout,” he said in emailed comments. “A sustained move below and bulls are in big trouble, but if that area generally holds, then I suppose a end-of-year rally is still possible.”

Some current problems for this market — it’s expensive by one measure he says, with the forward price/earnings ratio for the index at around 23. And investors are fairly long stocks, with more poured into equities this year than combined over the past 19 years. See below for that chart from Bank of America.

The last word goes to Dr. David Durand , founder and market analyst at the Wall Street Sun and Storm Report , who is also a trained molecular immunologist and virologist and who has some harsh words for this panic-stricken market.

“The response to this mutant should be the same as the response to any mutant virus. For years we have constructed new vaccines based on new mutations in influenza. It’s no different for Covid and no more of a threat in that sense. Can you imagine if the stock market reacted every time there was a new influenza variant that required a new vaccine?” said Durand in emailed comments.

“We don’t even know if we will need a new vaccine yet and they are speculating today. This is an excuse to sell, not a reason to sell. If you want to sell for a good reason, good but if that’s all you’ve got you may as well go to Las Vegas and place all of your life savings on red,” he said.

The markets

The Dow /zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime DJIA -1.30% is tumbling , with the S&P 500 /zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime SPX -1.89% and Nasdaq /zigman2/quotes/210598365/realtime COMP -2.72% also deep in negative territory. The CBOE Volatility /zigman2/quotes/210598281/delayed VIX +12.74% , or fear index, hit its highest level since September .

European stocks /zigman2/quotes/210599654/delayed XX:SXXP -1.84% are headed for their worst session of 2021 and Asia had an ugly session, with the biggest losses seen for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng /zigman2/quotes/210598030/delayed HK:HSI +0.05% , which slid 2.6%. Treasury yields /zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y -2.63% are tumbling , gold /zigman2/quotes/210034565/delayed GC00 -0.35% is surging , along with the yen /zigman2/quotes/210561789/realtime/sampled USDJPY -0.0097% and Swiss franc /zigman2/quotes/210561981/realtime/sampled USDCHF +0.0439% .

Oil /zigman2/quotes/209723049/delayed CL00 -0.84% and Bitcoin /zigman2/quotes/31322028/realtime BTCUSD +0.11% are also taking hits.

/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
4,397.94
-84.79 -1.89%
Volume: 3.20B
Jan. 21, 2022 4:52p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime
US : Dow Jones Global
34,265.37
-450.02 -1.30%
Volume: 523.88M
Jan. 21, 2022 4:52p
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/zigman2/quotes/210599714/realtime
US : S&P US
4,397.94
-84.79 -1.89%
Volume: 3.20B
Jan. 21, 2022 4:52p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598365/realtime
US : Nasdaq
13,768.92
-385.10 -2.72%
Volume: 5.01M
Jan. 21, 2022 5:16p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598281/delayed
US : Cboe Indices
28.85
+3.26 +12.74%
Volume: 0.00
Jan. 21, 2022 3:15p
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/zigman2/quotes/210599654/delayed
XX : STOXX
474.44
-8.91 -1.84%
Volume: 0.00
Jan. 21, 2022 11:03p
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/zigman2/quotes/210598030/delayed
HK : Hong Kong Exchange
24,965.55
+13.20 +0.05%
Volume: 2.37M
Jan. 22, 2022 11:46p
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/zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime
add Add to watchlist BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
BX : Tullett Prebon
1.76
-0.05 -2.63%
Volume: 0.00
Jan. 21, 2022 4:56p
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/zigman2/quotes/210034565/delayed
US : U.S.: Nymex
$ 1,836.10
-6.50 -0.35%
Volume: 221,210
Jan. 21, 2022 4:59p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210561789/realtime/sampled
US : Tullett Prebon
113.6700
-0.0110 -0.0097%
Volume: 0.0000
Jan. 23, 2022 5:33p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/210561981/realtime/sampled
US : Tullett Prebon
0.9120
+0.0004 +0.0439%
Volume: 0.0000
Jan. 23, 2022 5:33p
loading...
/zigman2/quotes/209723049/delayed
US : U.S.: Nymex
$ 84.83
-0.72 -0.84%
Volume: 488,219
Jan. 21, 2022 4:59p
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/zigman2/quotes/31322028/realtime
US : CoinDesk
35,428.73
+40.19 +0.11%
Volume: 0.00
Jan. 23, 2022 5:32p
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