Stanley Druckenmiller fears a recession but isn’t betting against stocks. Here’s why.

By Steve Goldstein

Sometimes, it’s hard getting workers of a certain generation to do much of anything at all.

Here’s one: “Currently, I’m going in every day, and I’m looking at my screen, but I’m pretty much taking a break.”

Granted, that’s not a woke 20-something but Stanley Druckenmiller, the 68-year-old investing legend who runs the Duquesne Family Office and managed money for George Soros. He has a reason for his inactivity.

“I’ve lived through enough bear markets, that if you get aggressive in a bear market on the short side, you can get your head ripped off in rallies,” he said, according to a clip from the 2022 Sohn Investment Conference that was aired on CNBC .

Druckenmiller said, according to Bloomberg News’ account , that it’s possible the first leg of the bear market has ended. “But I think it’s highly, highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run.” His rationale is simple enough — there has never been a soft landing when inflation has been above 4.5%.

At the end of the first quarter, his top positions were South Korean online marketplace Coupang /zigman2/quotes/225253473/composite CPNG -1.01% , Microsoft /zigman2/quotes/207732364/composite MSFT -2.40% , miner Freeport-McMoRan /zigman2/quotes/200215692/composite FCX -0.33% , Amazon.com /zigman2/quotes/210331248/composite AMZN -1.70% and Chevron /zigman2/quotes/205871374/composite CVX -0.31% , according to his 13-F filing. The Freeport-McMoRan and Chevron holdings fit with his comment that he has owned key commodities including oil, gold and copper this year, while betting against fixed income and stocks.

According to Bloomberg, Druckenmiller will look to bet against the dollar /zigman2/quotes/210598269/delayed DXY +0.25% sometime in the next six months, as he also expects to short stocks again.

The buzz

U.S. consumer price growth accelerated to 1% in May, the Labor Department reported on Friday, topping consensus expectations. Core price growth stayed at 0.6%. Over the last 12 months, prices have gained 8.6%, t he fastest inflation rate since 1981.

U.S. stock futures /zigman2/quotes/209948968/delayed ES00 -0.22% /zigman2/quotes/210219788/delayed NQ00 -0.34% slumped after the report was released, with the S&P 500 contract losing nearly 2%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury /zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y +0.21% rose to 3.09%.

Shortly after the open, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is due for release.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan and the Financial Services Agency on Friday expressed concern over the yen’s /zigman2/quotes/210561789/realtime/sampled USDJPY -0.0647% recent rapid weakening.

Netflix /zigman2/quotes/202353025/composite NFLX -2.50% , Roblox /zigman2/quotes/223883423/composite RBLX -2.63% , and eBay /zigman2/quotes/204653455/composite EBAY +0.16% were among a host of internet stocks that Goldman Sachs has downgraded to sell. Netflix, eBay, and Frontdoor /zigman2/quotes/202976892/composite FTDR +0.29% , which also was downgraded, each fell 4%.

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority said it is consulting on the launch of a probe into Apple /zigman2/quotes/202934861/composite AAPL -2.00% and Google’s /zigman2/quotes/202490156/composite GOOGL -3.12% market power in mobile browsers. Apple, the regulator said, has also blocked the emergence of cloud gaming services on its App Store, while the regulator is launching an enforcement action against Google for how users can make in-app payments.

DocuSign /zigman2/quotes/205992027/composite DOCU -0.62% shares slumped 26% in premarket action, as the electronic-documents company missed on fiscal first-quarter earnings and trimmed its billings guidance.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market ticker symbols as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

The chart

David Rosenberg, the veteran Wall Street strategist who has been pessimistic on markets for some time, is becoming a bit more positive. The founder of Rosenberg Research writes that the combination of euphoric sentiment, stretched positioning and excessive valuations are being unwound, although he expects the drawdown in stocks to continue. His equity model has improved to a level suggesting above-average returns of 13.8% over the next 12 months. “As such, for investors that started the year underweight U.S. stocks (as our model recommended), we believe it makes sense to increase exposure somewhat,” he says.

Random reads

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/zigman2/quotes/225253473/composite

Add to watchlist CPNG

Coupang Inc.

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 17.63

-0.18 -1.01%

Volume: 5.36M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

73.83

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$31.77 billion

Rev. per Employee

$350,262

/zigman2/quotes/207732364/composite

Add to watchlist MSFT

Microsoft Corp.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 320.77

-7.88 -2.40%

Volume: 21.44M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

33.12

Dividend Yield

0.85%

Market Cap

$2441.79 billion

Rev. per Employee

$958,891

/zigman2/quotes/200215692/composite

Add to watchlist FCX

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 38.69

-0.13 -0.33%

Volume: 7.27M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:03p

P/E Ratio

26.66

Dividend Yield

1.55%

Market Cap

$55.65 billion

Rev. per Employee

$853,281

/zigman2/quotes/210331248/composite

Add to watchlist AMZN

Amazon.com Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 135.29

-2.34 -1.70%

Volume: 46.26M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

107.59

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$1412.13 billion

Rev. per Employee

$349,154

/zigman2/quotes/205871374/composite

Add to watchlist CVX

Chevron Corp.

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 166.69

-0.51 -0.31%

Volume: 5.94M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:03p

P/E Ratio

10.58

Dividend Yield

3.62%

Market Cap

$318.95 billion

Rev. per Employee

$4.88M

/zigman2/quotes/210598269/delayed

Add to watchlist DXY

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

US : U.S.: ICE Futures U.S.

105.46

+0.26 +0.25%

Volume: 0.00

Sept. 21, 2023 4:03a

/zigman2/quotes/209948968/delayed

Add to watchlist ES00

E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract

US : U.S.: CME

$ 4,437.00

-10.00 -0.22%

Volume: 121,723

Sept. 21, 2023 3:03a

/zigman2/quotes/210219788/delayed

Add to watchlist NQ00

E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Continuous Contract

US : U.S.: CME

$ 15,100.75

-51.25 -0.34%

Volume: 60,614

Sept. 21, 2023 3:03a

/zigman2/quotes/211347051/realtime

Add to watchlist BX:TMUBMUSD10Y

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note

BX : Tullett Prebon

4.42

+0.0092 +0.21%

Volume: 0.00

Sept. 21, 2023 4:13a

/zigman2/quotes/210561789/realtime/sampled

Add to watchlist USDJPY

Japanese Yen

US : Tullett Prebon

148.2480

-0.0960 -0.0647%

Volume: 0.0000

Sept. 21, 2023 4:13a

/zigman2/quotes/202353025/composite

Add to watchlist NFLX

Netflix Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 386.30

-9.90 -2.50%

Volume: 3.87M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

41.07

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$175.57 billion

Rev. per Employee

$2.51M

/zigman2/quotes/223883423/composite

Add to watchlist RBLX

Roblox Corp.

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 26.25

-0.71 -2.63%

Volume: 7.82M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:04p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$16.63 billion

Rev. per Employee

$1.14M

/zigman2/quotes/204653455/composite

Add to watchlist EBAY

eBay Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 43.69

+0.07 +0.16%

Volume: 4.13M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

17.65

Dividend Yield

2.29%

Market Cap

$23.21 billion

Rev. per Employee

$842,414

/zigman2/quotes/202976892/composite

Add to watchlist FTDR

Frontdoor inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 31.12

+0.09 +0.29%

Volume: 430,633

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

19.72

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$2.49 billion

Rev. per Employee

$1.00M

/zigman2/quotes/202934861/composite

Add to watchlist AAPL

Apple Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 175.49

-3.58 -2.00%

Volume: 58.44M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:15p

P/E Ratio

29.49

Dividend Yield

0.55%

Market Cap

$2799.62 billion

Rev. per Employee

$2.34M

/zigman2/quotes/202490156/composite

Add to watchlist GOOGL

Alphabet Inc. Cl A

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 133.74

-4.30 -3.12%

Volume: 29.93M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

28.29

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$1745.13 billion

Rev. per Employee

$1.51M

/zigman2/quotes/205992027/composite

Add to watchlist DOCU

DocuSign Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 43.42

-0.27 -0.62%

Volume: 5.95M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$8.88 billion

Rev. per Employee

$361,793

/zigman2/quotes/203558040/composite

Add to watchlist TSLA

Tesla Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 262.59

-3.91 -1.47%

Volume: 122.51M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

74.50

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$845.87 billion

Rev. per Employee

$735,427

/zigman2/quotes/203755179/composite

Add to watchlist GME

GameStop Corp. Cl A

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 17.52

0.00 0.00%

Volume: 2.13M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Market Cap

$5.35 billion

Rev. per Employee

$528,518

/zigman2/quotes/200235402/composite

Add to watchlist AMC

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Cl A

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 8.16

-0.09 -1.09%

Volume: 23.10M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Market Cap

$1.64 billion

Rev. per Employee

$126,479

/zigman2/quotes/204905836/composite

Add to watchlist NIO

NIO Inc. ADR

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 8.82

+0.27 +3.16%

Volume: 122.78M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:03p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$17.05 billion

Rev. per Employee

N/A

/zigman2/quotes/201948298/composite

Add to watchlist BABA

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 85.74

-1.37 -1.57%

Volume: 9.23M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:01p

P/E Ratio

18.65

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$220.66 billion

Rev. per Employee

$547,710

/zigman2/quotes/210331248/composite

Add to watchlist AMZN

Amazon.com Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 135.29

-2.34 -1.70%

Volume: 46.26M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

107.59

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$1412.13 billion

Rev. per Employee

$349,154

/zigman2/quotes/202934861/composite

Add to watchlist AAPL

Apple Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 175.49

-3.58 -2.00%

Volume: 58.44M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:15p

P/E Ratio

29.49

Dividend Yield

0.55%

Market Cap

$2799.62 billion

Rev. per Employee

$2.34M

/zigman2/quotes/208144392/composite

Add to watchlist AMD

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 100.34

-1.27 -1.25%

Volume: 55.18M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

N/A

Market Cap

$164.17 billion

Rev. per Employee

$875,040

/zigman2/quotes/231059446/composite

Add to watchlist IMPP

Imperial Petroleum Inc.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 1.47

+0.01 +0.68%

Volume: 729,506

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

0.04

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Market Cap

$48.29 million

Rev. per Employee

N/A

/zigman2/quotes/200467500/composite

Add to watchlist NVDA

NVIDIA Corp.

US : U.S.: Nasdaq

$ 422.39

-12.81 -2.94%

Volume: 36.71M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

102.04

Dividend Yield

0.04%

Market Cap

$1074.94 billion

Rev. per Employee

$1.25M

/zigman2/quotes/203508018/composite

Add to watchlist MCD

McDonald's Corp.

US : U.S.: NYSE

$ 277.20

-0.93 -0.33%

Volume: 1.98M

Sept. 20, 2023 4:00p

P/E Ratio

25.52

Dividend Yield

2.19%

Market Cap

$202.69 billion

Rev. per Employee

$161,293